EVEN on a good day, a no-deal Brexit resembles the sort of harrowing script that could only be written by J.G. Ballard and directed by Ridley Scott.
If the UK crashes out of the EU on October 31, tariffs will likely apply to imports and exports, and a recession will hover like a radioactive cloud.
The economy, experts predict, will shrink and unemployment will increase. Rising food prices, particularly on products from the EU, will hit those of modest means. Do not fall ill in a hard Brexit Britain. A stockpile of medicines would dwindle and rationing may become inevitable. Waiting times could be introduced for prescriptions.
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Others believe no deal will be a middle-class nightmare. House prices could fall by 10% and rates for savers may tumble to laughably low rates. Do not expect a handsome dividend from your shares in UK companies.
Escaping the UK for a holiday in Europe would almost certainly become an expensive and frustrating endeavour. Sterling would be weak and British motorists would be expected to produce a blizzard of paperwork simply for driving in the EU. The European Health Insurance Card (EHIC), which guarantees healthcare in member states, would no longer apply. Stump up, Monsieur.
No matter that it says to the contrary, large sections of the country feel Boris Johnson’s Government does not care about the consequences of no deal, an outcome that will be triggered unless he extracts improbable concessions from European partners he has insulted. For the Prime Minister, leaving the EU is about politics, not economics.
We have seen this movie before. David Cameron caved in to his party on an EU referendum because he saw it as the only way to unite his warring colleagues. Theresa May’s Brexit “red lines”, which hampered her ability to secure any deal that could be approved by Parliament, were designed to keep the Tories together. Johnson’s Brexit strategy is about ensuring the Conservatives stay in office.
He knows his party cannot win another election until Brexit is delivered. The European poll, where the Brexit Party divided the Right, proved it. Last week’s by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire, where the Tories lost by less than the votes polled by Nigel Farage’s new outfit, confirmed Johnson’s problem.
An added complication is that the Brexit Party will not accept anything less than a hard Brexit. A tweaked version of May’s draft withdrawal agreement will lead to cries of betrayal and Farage and co standing in elections. Jeremy Corbyn, or new Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson, would be the beneficiary.
Johnson’s October 31 deadline – “do or die” – is about being able to say to voters at a snap general election that the country has left the EU in such a manner that satisfies the Brexit Party. Johnson would lose hundreds of thousands of votes to the LibDems, for sure, but he clearly believes this depletion would be offset by Farage leaving the pitch.
No deal would be disastrous for the country economically, but the Tories could survive electorally by playing a familiar tune. Rising prices and falling living standards would be blamed on obstructionist Brussels. Nationalism always requires a bogeyman and the EU, as ever, would be the fall guy.
A more significant risk from Johnson’s political standpoint would be the effect of no deal on his party in Scotland, and the Union. Leaving the EU without a contract is Ruth Davidson’s worst nightmare. She would be pilloried by Nicola Sturgeon over the economic damage done to Scotland. Davidson’s chances of becoming the next First Minister would fall from 10% to zero overnight.
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Davidson, who is appalled by the prospect of no deal, is already feeling the pressure internally. A survey of Tory members by Conservative Home, an influential party blog, found that her approval rating was as high as 84% after the 2017 election. But opposing Johnson has carried a cost. Her rating last week slumped to 14%.
No deal is also likely to fuel support for Scottish independence, an outcome that observers of politics north of the Border may find ironic. It was Alex Salmond who, at the height of the referendum campaign in 2014, suggested that an independent Scotland would refuse to pay its share of the UK debt if a currency union was turned down. He was flagging up a “no deal indy” in all but name.
Johnson is in a bind. If he fails to secure an acceptable Brexit, his party will implode. If he succeeds, leaving one political union will put another at risk. A no-deal Brexit and the Union look increasingly incompatible. The Prime Minister’s new Cabinet seems more enthusiastic about delivering the former than protecting the latter.
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