THE Government has been forced to publish its assumptions for a no-deal Brexit, including potential shortages of certain foods and medicines and a risk for public disorder.
The six-page Operation Yellowhammer file, which was leaked to a Sunday newspaper last month, was released after a vote by opposition and Tory rebels MPs on Monday.
It warned the poor would be “disproportionately affected” by food and fuel price rises and a rise in protests and public order "may absorb significant amounts of police resource".
The application of new tariffs could “severely disrupt trade” with Ireland, with some businesses forced to relocate or “trade illegally”, with the agri-food sector “hardest hit”.
It warned “disruption to key sectors and job losses are likely to result in protests and direct action with road blockages”, and said there would be a surge in the black market economy.
The document, dated August 2 and marked official sensitive, was headed “reasonable worst case planning assumptions”.
However it was headed “base scenario” when it was leaked last month, prompting claims it had been relabelled to sound less alarming, something Number 10 denied.
Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer said: "These documents confirm the severe risks of a no-deal Brexit.
"It is completely irresponsible for the government to have tried to ignore these stark warnings and prevent the public from seeing the evidence.
"Boris Johnson must now admit that he has been dishonest with the British people about the consequence of a no-deal Brexit."
However the Government refused to release other material demanded by MPs on the internal discussions by Downing Street aides about suspending parliament.
Cabinet minister Michael Gove said the request to see electronic messages from Boris Johnson’s chief adviser Dominic Cummings and nine other aides had been “unprecedented, inappropriate and disproportionate” and “against basic principles of fairness”.
The Yellowhammer file, dated August 2 and marked “official sensitive”, said there could be severe disruption at UK ports, with up 50 to 85 per cent of lorries trying to cross the English Channel not ready for French customs on day one of no-deal.
Lack of trader readiness could reduce traffic flow to 40-60% of current levels in a day, with the disruption possibly lasting three months before improving to 50-70% of current flow.
In said that in a worst case scenario, HGVs could face delays of 1.5 to 2.5 days before being able to cross the border.
With three-quarters of medicines imported across the Channel, the disruption at the ports, unless mitigated, “will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies”.
It said “certain types of fresh food supply will decrease”,with key ingredients, chemicals and packaging possibly in shorter supply.
Because of increased demand in the run-up to Christmas, and the end of the UK growing season, the government “will not be able to fully anticipate all potential impacts”.
Worse, “there is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption.”
It also said there would be difficulty stopping foreign fishing vessels entering UK waters illegal on day one causing “anger and frustration” in the UK fleet.
It warned of possible rises in smuggling, illegal migration, disorder and criminality as result of the tensions, including “violent disputes or blockading of ports”.
It also said rising inflation and staff shortages could lead to “provider failure” in an already stretched social care sector.
One of the 20 paragraphs in the file was blacked out.
Yellowhammer also warned of possible disruption to the sharing of law enforcement data with the EU, disruption of cross-border UK financial services
Shadow Scotland minister Paul Sweeney said the government’s response to MPs’ demand had been “perfunctory and insufficient” and “contemptuous of the will of Parliament”.
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