A YouGov poll released yesterday suggested yesterday that Boris Johnson would secure a majority in the Commons.

If the election were held this Thursday, YouGov's constituency by constituency poll for The Times puts the Tories on 359 seats, up 42 on their 2017 performance, while Labour would lose 51 seats to 211 and the Lib Dems would gain just one to secure 13 constituencies.

The poll suggested the SNP is on course to secure a further eight seats taking their total to 43, although crucially for the Tories’ chance of securing their Westminster majority, only two of the SNP gains come from Boris Johnson’s party.

If polling is accurate, Labour is set to lose five seats to the SNP, with the Lib Dems losing one in Scotland

Using data from the UK Office for National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results, YouGov has estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allow YouGov to produce estimates of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party. HeraldScotland:

READ MORE: Every candidate standing in the general election in Scotland 

YouGov used MPR polling which is a polling technique aimed at solving that problem – a way of using large samples sizes to project figures on to smaller geographical areas.

As well as the seats expected to change hands, there are a number of seats that the could swing either way such as Gordon, Angus and others. The full data of seats can be found here.  Other seats such as East Dunbartonshire are expected to lean towards the Lib Dems. 

We take a look at the seats that are expected to change hands in Scotland this general election and which way they will swing. 

*Please note, the data suggests an estimated turnout and a high turnout - these are simply the percentages YouGov believes a party will obtain as well as what the maximum high a party could gain from the MPR data*

READ MORE: The science behind the latest YouGov poll

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (Lib Dem to SNP) 

The polling suggests that while the seat may be too close to call, it will change hands if SNP voters come out in full. The estimate is 33% vote for SNP with 32% Lib Dems. A maximum high for the SNP according to the data would see them obtain 43% with the Lib Dems obtaining 41%. The Lib Dems won the seat by just under 2,000 votes in 2017. 

East Lothian (Labour to SNP)

The YouGov poll states that East Lothian is currently leaning towards the SNP and may change hands during the election. According to data, the SNP estimate vote for the SNP is 34% with Labour on 29%. Data indicates a high Labour turnout would be 37% with SNP 44%. However, a high Labour turnout and an estimated SNP turnout could see the seat remain red. Labour had over 20,000 votes in 2017 with the SNP gaining just over 17,000. 

READ MORE: SNP on course to win 43 seats, poll suggests

East Renfrewshire (Conservative to SNP)

One of the two Scottish seats expected to turn from the Conservatives to the SNP. East Renfrewshire is still a close seat for the poll to call with the average estimate vote for the SNP being 39% and the Tories obtaining an average estimate of 38%. The Conservatives had almost 5,000 more seats than the SNP in 2017, but the polling indicates there could be an SNP in East Renfrewshire. The Conservatives enjoyed a 13.7% swing in 2017 but it looks like such a swing could be reversed in 2019. 

Glasgow North East (Labour to SNP)

The SNP have done well in Glasgow in the last few elections, making inroads in the city both in Scottish and general elections. In 2017, Labour won the seat by less than 300 with the YouGov data suggesting that the constituency will be a likely SNP win. The SNP are expected to gain an estimated 47% of the vote with Labour obtaining 34%.

HeraldScotland: The polling data The polling data

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Labour to SNP) 

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath is expected to be yet another SNP at the hands of Labour. The SNP are currently around 7 points ahead on the YouGov estimated data with the seat leaning towards SNP if turnouts are as expected. Again, with less than 300 seats between the parties in 2017, this will be a seat that is hotly contested with Labour last gaining the seat from the SNP in a 9.8% swing. 

Midlothian (Labour to SNP)

Labour won Midlothian in 2017 with an 11% swing from the SNP, however, YouGov's latest poll suggests that the seat will soon be coloured yellow on the electoral map. The seat is expected to lean SNP with estimates giving the party 38% of the vote in comparison to Labour's 31%. A high Labour turnout would see them obtain 39% with YouGov suggesting that the seat will swing.  

Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Labour to SNP)

YouGov also has Rutherglen and Hamilton West leaning towards SNP with an estimated 38% of votes for the SNP (high turnout of 48%) in comparison to 32% for Labour (high 41%) Less than 200 votes decided the seat in 2017 with Labour enjoying an 8.9% swing. However, YouGov data suggests that this seat will become one of the 43 for the SNP. 


Stirling (Conservative to SNP) 

Stirling has been a continually changing seat in the last few elections, a stark change from the Labour stronghold seen at the start of the millennium. Labour held the seat in 2010, with the SNP gaining the seat in 2015 before losing it to the Conservatives by less than 100 votes in 2017. The seat is currently leaning towards SNP according to YouGov with an estimated 42% of the votes (high of 53%) compared to a Conservative estimate of 36% with a high of 44%. 

While these are not official results, YouGov used the same method in the 2017 General Election, when the model accurately predicted the results in 93% of constituencies and pointed towards a hung Parliament when many other election predictions were pointing towards a Conservative majority.