COVID-19 has had a profound effect on the UK retail sector to date. Despite a boom in online sales prompted by the lockdown restrictions, overall sales are down 20 per cent year on year, according to the BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor. To put this in context, this constitutes the worst decline in sales since records began 25 years ago.

The difficulty for retailers is that this global pandemic has come off the back of a substantial period of consumer uncertainty, due to Brexit, which has seen consumers either hold off on making significant purchases or avoid them altogether.

As a result, many retailers entered these unprecedented times in an already financially weakened state. Debenhams, Laura Ashley, fashion brand Quiz, jewellers Ernest Jones and H Samuel are closing stores. Oasis and Warehouse entered administration, leading to the permanent closure of its 92 stores and 400 concessions.

Market research firm GfK’s index now indicates consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest levels since the financial crisis in 2008.

Consumer confidence represents the biggest challenge for retailers, not just in terms of consumer spending but simply encouraging people to enter stores again. Many customers will be nervous about venturing out into public spaces – particularly relatively confined spaces such as shops. Most high street retailers have been looking to model their approach on that taken by supermarkets. 

Initiatives such as limiting the number of customers in store at any one time, one-way systems, Perspex screens at the till points and two-metre spacing marked out for queues are all practices that look set to become the norm across retail in general. Also, customers are likely to be discouraged from touching stock and changing rooms in fashion stores are set to remain closed for the foreseeable future. 

COVID-secure measures including hand sanitiser stations, larger till areas, contactless customer returns, and queuing simply to enter stores, will become commonplace.

It is also likely that the choice within stores will be more limited than before. Retailers will be cautious of finding themselves in similar positions to that they are in now by holding too much stock should a second wave of COVID-19 hit and lockdown measures be reinstated.

Shopping is going to be a very different experience for customers, it’s not going to be as fun. Retailers view their store environments as vital communication channels; through their stores they can create brand image and customer experience. Due to the social distancing measures in place, high street stores will no longer be experiential, social-interactive spaces where ease and convenience are valued but functional centres of commerce.

Undoubtedly the pandemic will change UK retail forever, with indications showing that current circumstances have accelerated existing retail trends. For example, the growth reported in online shopping over the last few years looks set to continue as people who have been previously reticent to shop online now choose to out of necessity or convenience.

The decline in the use of cash is also likely to be exacerbated, with consumers being actively encouraged to use Chip and PIN or contactless payments over notes and coin due to hygiene concerns. 

But there are some green shoots of new consumer behaviours that could address a key issue that has plagued the retail sector for decades – the erosion of local high streets. 

Retail analysts have identified a growing consumer preference to support local businesses as Covid-19 has provided a reminder of how vital local enterprises are. This, along 
with the lack of product choice that consumers may now perceive from large retailers, presents real opportunities for independent, local retail businesses. 

It may be this signals the return of the bustling town centre as consumers start to look closer to home for choice and individuality.

Dr Cara Connell is a lecturer in Fashion, Marketing and Retailing at Glasgow Caledonian University