SCOTLAND'S economy will suffer "permanent" damage due to the coronavirus crisis, the Scottish Government's official forecaster has warned.
The independent Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) said GDP may not recover to pre-lockdown levels until 2023.
But since the economy would have grown if not for the pandemic, this means GDP will still be lower than it otherwise would have been.
Professor Francis Breedon said: "This is not only a very nasty temporary shock, it is actually one that has a permanent impact on the economy."
He said just getting back to pre-lockdown levels "is indicative of a significant loss, permanent loss of GDP for the Scottish and indeed other economies".
He added: "We're not expecting the economy, even after the crisis passes, to get back to the path it was on before.
"We expect it...to get to a significantly lower path than we would have otherwise had."
Mr Breedon said: "When the crisis passes, there will be a bounce back, there will be some rather amazingly good GDP numbers.
"But those GDP numbers won't get us back to where we would have been had this crisis not occurred."
Asked if tax rises are inevitable, he said "some sort of fiscal consolidation is extremely likely".
He made the comments during a briefing for journalists.
Last month, Scotland followed the rest of the UK in confirming a historic recession after GDP plunged by almost a fifth during lockdown.
The SFC said the Scottish economy has "moved from the initial shock of Covid-19 to the start of what is likely to be a long and unpredictable recovery process".
In a fiscal update, it added: "Covid-19 has led to a large fall in GDP, but because of the job retention scheme, this effect is not yet reflected in the unemployment rate.
"We might expect more significant effects on unemployment to emerge later in the year as the job retention scheme winds down."
It said GDP is "likely to rise rapidly over the coming quarters as economic activity resumes".
Its report added: "However, for some time to come GDP will remain below the level seen before the Covid-19 crisis began, and it may take until 2023 for GDP to recover to its pre-crisis level.
"During this time, unemployment is likely to be elevated, and earnings will be lower for many.
"We expect some permanent damage to the Scottish economy, with the effects still felt in the years ahead."
Elsewhere, Professor Alasdair Smith of the SFC said a no-deal Brexit would have "pretty significant negative economic effects".
He said: "Some commentators think that the negative economic effects of a no-deal Brexit will be hidden behind the negative effects of Covid.
"I think in many areas, the negative economic effects of a no-deal Brexit will add significantly and visibly to the negative effects of Covid."
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