THE Government has relied too much on medical scientists and needs stronger leadership to navigate through the pandemic, according to a former top civil servant.

Lord Gus O’Donnell, Cabinet Secretary under Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and David Cameron, will share his views on how the current government has failed in its handling of the pandemic tonight.

He is to speak at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) Annual Lecture, and will argue that Dominic Cummings “used up” Boris Johnson’s political capital, leading to his popularity ratings falling while Nicola Sturgeon’s have continued to rise throughout the crisis.

Lord O’Donnell will also emphasise that despite Scotland not having a significantly better track record on controlling the virus than elsewhere, the ‘optics’ of Nicola Sturgeon and her likeable personality have cut through with the public.

He will say: “Approval ratings for the leaders of Scotland and the UK are somewhat counterintuitive when we look at the relevant coronavirus data in the nations of our union.

“Scotland’s excess death rate is only slightly below that of England, and significantly above that of similar countries.

“Indeed, given Scotland’s very low population density compared to England and its distance from the epicentre of the early crisis in London, Nicola Sturgeon’s popularity is in spite of Scotland’s handling of the pandemic.”

The former head of the civil service will also say that Boris Johnson “used up his political capital” after coming out of hospital quickly, with events such as Dominic Cummings’ trip to Barnard castle overtaking it.

He will explain: "Yet today the difference in approval ratings between Johnson and Sturgeon is stark, as is the polling on how effectively people believe the UK and Scottish government have handled the crisis.

“This tells us first that Johnson used up his political capital quickly after his hospitalisation. The Cummings debacle is where much of that capital was expended, and alongside other failings points to something we knew already: optics matter.”

He will also argue that the SNP have played to its strengths over the pandemic, by casting Westminster as the ‘risk-taker’ while claiming successes for things going well.

He will explain: “The UK government, empowered to make many of the key decisions facing the country, was always going to find itself bearing the brunt of public criticism, whether or not it deserved that blame.

“As it has in the past, the SNP gain leverage from claiming success when things go well, while blaming lack of devolved power and the UK government for failures. Given this dynamic, the UK government will almost without fail be cast as the risk-taker.

“To avoid this, leaders in Westminster would have been far better placed to build and communicate a framework of the type I have been advocating. Without it, what transpires is a facile trade-off between COVID deaths avoided and gains to GDP.”

On the handling of the crisis, the crossbench peer will explain that Westminster officials have relied too much on one type of data, and should have expanded their range of evidence before making decisions.

He will argue that the best measure of a country’s performance in handling the crisis is to use excess death rates and wellbeing measures, as opposed to GDP.

Lord O’Donnell will also argue that a lack of leadership from Boris Johnson and confused messaging from the government led to the guidelines not always being followed y the public.

He will explain: “From 23rd March, the government’s message was: stay home, protect the NHS, save lives. The problem was that the campaign attached to this simple slogan had some adverse consequences.

“This led people to stay at home who should have sought out medical help, and the consequences will be with us for some time.”

He adds that the phrase ‘social distancing’ confused people, and explains:”It seems that confusion and frustration increases with each new announcement of lockdown rules.”

The peer will explain:"At a very basic level, would 'physical distancing' not have been a far better term than 'social distancing'?

"Listening to the radio waves and studying the polls, it seems that confusion and frustration increases with each new announcement of lockdown rules. Some of this is probably unavoidable, but a more effective public campaign might involve getting people to think pro-socially about the implications of their actions, rather than laying out the exactitudes of the latest set of rules, which in any case change far too often and at short notice."

The former cabinet office minister will add that a slogan such as "'Don’t kill Granny' seems a better bet than a rule of six. "

In his speech this evening he will also explain that "encouraging people to snitch on their neighbours" would not "build up social capital" adding: "While the jury is out on Sweden’s lockdown strategy, and its profile is far different from the UK, it seems less beset by behavioural and communication issues arising from top-down lockdown rules."

Several Government ministers said they would report their neighbours to the police if they discovered them breaking lockdown rules, including Priti Patel and Matt Hancock.

The Prime Minister, however, said he would not and would not encourage others to do so.

Lord O'Donnell appears less than impressed with Boris Johnson's leadership skills, and will tell attendees of the event that Rishi Sunak appears a more confident leader.

He will say:" Now, I fear that I have pointed out too many grey clouds and too few silver linings.

"We have a good example of clear political leadership in the UK from the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak.

"He accepted the advice of economic advisers both inside and outside the Treasury that unprecedented action was needed."

He will praise the furlough scheme, which has helped more than 900,000 people in Scotland alone but is set to end next month.

The peer explains:" The furlough scheme was put together quickly and has largely achieved its objective of keeping people attached to their employer. The scheme supported a colossal 9.6 million jobs.

"This will allow many of them to go back to employment. Of course, there will be many for whom the end of the scheme will mean unemployment, and here the government will need to learn from past programmes as well as other countries."

Rishi Sunak will set out his plans for support after the furlough scheme ends later today in Parliament.