LEADING Scottish medics warn they have “significant concerns” that the relaxation of household mixing rules over Christmas will lead to more infections, deaths and “may overwhelm parts of the NHS” in winter.

In a joint statement shared with the Herald, Dr Lewis Morrison, chair of BMA Scotland, and Dr Miles Mack, chair of the Scottish Academy which represents medical royal colleges, said they were not seeking to overturn the decision but to caution the public about the dangers.

It comes as Nicola Sturgeon told MSPs that the current restrictions are lowering Covid cases and hospital admissions, but that there will be no change to local authorities’ tiers this week.

She added that “as we go deeper into winter there are factors which could push transmission up”.

Across the UK, three households - capped at eight people over the age of 11 in Scotland - will be allowed to spend up to five days together over the festive period from December 23 to 27.

This will temporarily bring to an end to the household visiting bans that have been in place in parts of the country, including Glasgow, since September 1.

scientists have warned that this will lead to a spike in virus transmission and potentially a need for a new lockdown in January.

READ MORE: Household mixing 'is number one source of Covid transmission'

Drs Morrison and Mack said it had “clearly not been easy for politicians to strike a balance between lessening social isolation, with its effects on mental health, over Christmas and the inevitable rise in Covid-19 cases in that will occur in January as a result of more social mixing”.

They add: “We must be honest and say that we have significant concerns about the how this five-day period may impact upon Covid-19 infection rates.

“Multiple people mixing indoors for prolonged periods of time will lead to an increase in cases. This means more people becoming unwell, being admitted to hospital and, probably, more deaths.

"But we also know that after the hardest of years, maintaining adherence to existing restrictions will be very difficult for some and therefore unrealistic to expect.

“We are also anxious about the impact on the NHS and its staff this winter. January is always an extremely challenging time of year for the NHS, and this time around, we have Covid-19 to add into the mix.

“There is a risk that the addition of more Covid-19 cases as a result of the easing of restrictions may overwhelm parts of the NHS, whose services are already stretched to their limits.”

The medics urge the public to “think very carefully” about plans for the five-day relaxation period.

They write: “Please consider very carefully who it is necessary to meet, how long you meet them for and how you can safely do so.

“Try to minimise crowding, increase ventilation in your homes, wash your hands regularly, observe social distancing and good general hygiene, to further reduce the risks. All of these measures really do make a difference.”

Documents released on Friday by the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) warned that “substantial mixing” of people over a short period of time represents a “significant risk for widespread transmission”.

A study by Imperial College London, also published on Friday and not yet peer-reviewed, concluded that Covid infections are more likely to spread in households than any other indoor setting, including hospitality.

The meta-analysis of 45 studies worldwide also found that the risk of passing the virus on is significantly higher when people spend more than five days together in the same household, compared to five days or less, but that asymptomatic individuals are much less likely to infect others.

The scientists estimated that the risk of someone who was infected without displaying symptoms from infecting a close contact was 3.5 per cent, compared to 12.8% for someone with symptoms.

Professor Linda Bauld, Usher chair of public health at Edinburgh University, said people should avoid overnight and extended stays with relatives if possible.

She added: "There are two key messages from this study for Scots to consider over the Christmas period. The first is that household mixing over Christmas in people’s homes is not without risk.

"In fact it could be worse than meeting up with relatives in a café of restaurant, for example."

READ MORE: Chinese New Year kick-started the pandemic and Thanksgiving has accelerated it - will we learn lessons by Christmas

It comes as the First Minister confirmed a further 34 deaths among people who have tested positive for Covid in the past 28 days.

However, Ms Sturgeon said the current restrictions were having a "positive impact".

The average number of new Covid cases being detected per day has fallen in 42% in three weeks, from 1,164 to 675, while the number of people in hospital with Covid has declined from 1,239 on November 10 to 1,021 as of yesterday.

"The sacrifices everyone is making are making a difference," said Ms Sturgeon.

"They are getting case numbers down, reducing the numbers getting ill and needing hospital care and so protecting the NHS, and saving lives.

"That said, the level of the virus overall - and this is particularly the case in some parts of the country - is still higher than we need it to be.

"There are still pressures on the health service – and any increase in rates of infection would intensify those.

"As we go into the deeper winter period, there are a number of factors that may well push transmission up again. And so we could see cases and resulting illness and deaths start to rise again."

Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire could be moved from Level 2 to 3 pending further analysis, said the First Minister, after cases "increased sharply" in the past week by 68% and 42% respectively.

"That means their case numbers – although still below the nationwide average – are higher than in some level 3 areas such as Angus," said Ms Sturgeon, adding that the proportion of people testing positive has also increased.

She said Chief Medical Officer and the National Incident Management Team were investigating, and that it was unclear whether increases in the region were driven by specific outbreaks or a "general rise in community transmission, which would obviously be a concern".

Despite low infections levels, Ms Sturgeon said Dumfries and Galloway would not be moved down to Level 1 for now because it is "bordered by areas with significant higher levels of infection".

All Level 4 areas will remain unchanged until December 11.

The First Minister added that the Scottish Government is "hopeful" to begin Covid vaccination before Christmas and to inoculate "a significant proportion" of the most vulnerable by Spring.