The Herald:

The latest monthly poll of Scottish vote intentions from ComRes has a mixed message for nationalists.

On the one hand, support for the SNP in the forthcoming Holyrood election in May is holding up and the party still seems to be on course to win an overall majority.

On the other hand, support for independence has slipped from 58% in December and 57% in January to 53% now.

Nicola Sturgeon might still seem well set for a significant election victory, but is the presumption that this would pave the way for a Yes vote in any subsequent referendum somewhat premature?

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This poll certainly confirms previous evidence that the lead in the polls for independence that emerged last year is not growing. On average the last half dozen polls have put support for Yes on 54% and No on 46%.

However, support for independence was already running at that level between July and September last year. The independence movement has at best been treading water during the winter.

Indeed, support for Yes may have even eased somewhat in recent weeks. Apart from today’s poll, last month Panelbase recorded a four-point drop since November, while Survation reported a three-point fall over the same time period.

All three polls recorded relatively high levels of support for Yes in the autumn, so perhaps these movements simply reflect chance variation, but are there now warning signs that some of the growth in support for independence may have gone into reverse?

The rise in support last summer occurred following a perception that the Scottish government was handling the pandemic well – and the UK government less well.

So perhaps the UK government’s vaccine programme – and the Scottish Government’s alleged tardiness in implementing the rollout – may have caused some voters to question whether Scotland would have been better able to handle the pandemic as an independent country?

However nearly half (47%) say the vaccine rollout has been going well and only around one in five (21%) badly. At 55% the proportion who say their opinion of Nicola Sturgeon has gone up since the pandemic is only slightly down on the 59% recorded last month. The proportion who say they think favourably of Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Government, in general, has not dropped at all.

Before the pandemic, most of the rise in support for independence occurred among Remain voters. Now that Brexit has been delivered, perhaps there are signs of a countervailing rise in support among Leave supporters? Indeed, at 38% support for independence among those who voted Leave is seven points down on ComRes’ poll last month. However, that simply brings the company’s figures in line with those of other recent polls – while a drop in support for independence is also in evidence among Remain voters.

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More immediately, of course, there has been growing media coverage of rifts within the SNP, including not least in respect of the inquiry into the failed Scottish Government disciplinary action against Ms Sturgeon’s predecessor, Alex Salmond. Perhaps this dispute has undermined some voters’ confidence in the nationalist project?

Certainly, voters seem to have become more aware of the divisions within the SNP. Today’s poll shows that more (45%) now think the party is divided - up six points on last month and ten points above those who say it is not divided (35%). Even SNP voters are no longer sure that their party is not divided. But if this perception has led some to doubt independence, why has SNP support itself held up?

Even so, perhaps a sign that a divided nationalist movement cannot afford to take voters for granted.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, and Senior Research Fellow, ScotCen Social Research.