The latest monthly poll of Scottish vote intentions from ComRes has a mixed message for nationalists.
On the one hand, support for the SNP in the forthcoming Holyrood election in May is holding up and the party still seems to be on course to win an overall majority.
On the other hand, support for independence has slipped from 58% in December and 57% in January to 53% now.
Nicola Sturgeon might still seem well set for a significant election victory, but is the presumption that this would pave the way for a Yes vote in any subsequent referendum somewhat premature?
READ MORE: Here's how support for independence has changed in five years as 21st poll shows Yes lead
This poll certainly confirms previous evidence that the lead in the polls for independence that emerged last year is not growing. On average the last half dozen polls have put support for Yes on 54% and No on 46%.
However, support for independence was already running at that level between July and September last year. The independence movement has at best been treading water during the winter.
Indeed, support for Yes may have even eased somewhat in recent weeks. Apart from today’s poll, last month Panelbase recorded a four-point drop since November, while Survation reported a three-point fall over the same time period.
All three polls recorded relatively high levels of support for Yes in the autumn, so perhaps these movements simply reflect chance variation, but are there now warning signs that some of the growth in support for independence may have gone into reverse?
The rise in support last summer occurred following a perception that the Scottish government was handling the pandemic well – and the UK government less well.
So perhaps the UK government’s vaccine programme – and the Scottish Government’s alleged tardiness in implementing the rollout – may have caused some voters to question whether Scotland would have been better able to handle the pandemic as an independent country?
However nearly half (47%) say the vaccine rollout has been going well and only around one in five (21%) badly. At 55% the proportion who say their opinion of Nicola Sturgeon has gone up since the pandemic is only slightly down on the 59% recorded last month. The proportion who say they think favourably of Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Government, in general, has not dropped at all.
Before the pandemic, most of the rise in support for independence occurred among Remain voters. Now that Brexit has been delivered, perhaps there are signs of a countervailing rise in support among Leave supporters? Indeed, at 38% support for independence among those who voted Leave is seven points down on ComRes’ poll last month. However, that simply brings the company’s figures in line with those of other recent polls – while a drop in support for independence is also in evidence among Remain voters.
READ MORE: Poll finds support for Scottish independence falling 'amid SNP infighting'
More immediately, of course, there has been growing media coverage of rifts within the SNP, including not least in respect of the inquiry into the failed Scottish Government disciplinary action against Ms Sturgeon’s predecessor, Alex Salmond. Perhaps this dispute has undermined some voters’ confidence in the nationalist project?
Certainly, voters seem to have become more aware of the divisions within the SNP. Today’s poll shows that more (45%) now think the party is divided - up six points on last month and ten points above those who say it is not divided (35%). Even SNP voters are no longer sure that their party is not divided. But if this perception has led some to doubt independence, why has SNP support itself held up?
Even so, perhaps a sign that a divided nationalist movement cannot afford to take voters for granted.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, and Senior Research Fellow, ScotCen Social Research.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel