An online Covid-19 calculator has identified several Scottish local authorities at high risk of being a 'coronavirus hotspot' by the middle of March.

Many other areas, however, have drastically reduced the number of cases since the turn of the year.

Devised by Imperial College London, the website predicts which parts of the country have the greatest probability of seeing cases rise above 100 per 100,000, which it classes as a 'hotspot.'

West Lothian was deemed to be the most likely in the country to become a hotspot between March 7 and March 13, sitting at 96%, according to the tool.

Meanwhile both Falkirk and West Dunbartonshire have a high chance of becoming a hotspot, at 93% and 80% respectively.

HeraldScotland:

The other three ‘red’ areas are Clackmannanshire and North Lanarkshire (both at 79%) and Stirling (77%).

The website uses data on daily reported cases and weekly reported deaths and mathematics modelling to report a probability that a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The predictions do assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

Glasgow, which typically has had the higher number of cases in the country, has dropped to around a 72% chance of having more than 100 cases per 100,000 population.

In East Lothian, the figure drops to 62%. It’s even less likely in Edinburgh, which sits at 59%.

Scientists are predicting a 59% chance of a hotspot in East Ayrshire, 56% in Renfrewshire and only 25% in Fife.

HeraldScotland:

It comes as office case rates for three of the four UK nations have dropped below the symbolic level of 100 cases per 100,000 people – suggesting lockdown restrictions across the country are continuing to drive down the overall spread of the virus.

Scotland currently has a seven-day rate of 95.7 cases per 100,000, the lowest since October 4.

The steep drop in rates since the start of the year suggests the various lockdowns in place across the UK have played a key role in reducing the number of new reported cases of coronavirus.

Here are the chances of a hotspot in your area, according to the study, as well as a comparison to ICL estimates on December 26.

  • Aberdeen City – 1% (-81%)
  • Aberdeenshire – 0% (-36%)
  • Angus – 1% (-13%)
  • Argyll and Bute – 0% (-18%)
  • Clackmannanshire – 79% (-15%)
  • Na h-Eileanan an lar – 22% (+21%)
  • Dumfries and Galloway – 3% (+3%)
  • Dundee City – 2% (-55%)
  • East Ayrshire – 59% (-25%)
  • East Dunbartonshire – 11% (-3%)
  • East Lothian – 62% (-26%)
  • East Renfrewshire – 21% (-29%)
  • Edinburgh City – 59% (-21%)
  • Falkirk – 93% (+51%)
  • Fife – 25% (-67%)
  • Glasgow City – 72% (+8%)
  • Highland – 6% (+6%)
  • Inverclyde – 5% (-5%)
  • Midlothian – 67% (-6%)
  • Moray – 6% (+6%)
  • North Ayrshire – 20% (-72%)
  • North Lanarkshire – 79% (+34%)
  • Orkney – 0% (/)
  • Perth and Kinross – 11% (-33%)
  • Renfrewshire – 56% (+19%)
  • Scottish Borders – 0% (-26%)
  • Shetland Islands – 0% (/)
  • South Ayrshire – 1% (-33%)
  • South Lanarkshire – 35% (-5%)
  • Stirling – 77% (+61%)
  • West Dunbartonshire – 80% (+71%)
  • West Lothian – 96% (+61%)