The UK Government’s Union Unit is a relatively new wheeze but so far, there’s been little unity within its ranks. As Oscar Wilde nearly said, “To lose one leader may be regarded as a misfortune, to lose both looks like carelessness”. With his usual lack of self-awareness, the Prime Minister has entered the fray, styling himself Minister for the Union and heading up the Union Strategy Committee. Rather like Herod becoming a patron of Unicef. The PM’s Union Strategy Committee and Michael Gove’s Union Operations Committee, conjure up images of the People’s Front of Judea and the Judean People’s Front in Monty Python’s Life of Brian.

In one of his Churchillian reveries, Mr Johnson may feel that his war to save the Union has just had its El Alamein moment. After months of retreat and polls pointing to Scottish independence, the tide might just have turned. The Inquiry into the Scottish Government’s Handling of Harassment Complaints against Alex Salmond, was always a lose/lose contest for the SNP. Preening pomposity in one corner versus serial incompetence in the other. Unsurprisingly, the unseemly pantomime has had an immediate impact on the polls, particularly amongst the undecided. Mr Salmond’s performance will have raised spirits metaphorically and possibly literally, within the previously beleaguered Union Unit. Yet, breaking out the Bollinger is a bit premature. Challenge to the Union is Hydra-like; the Salmond disaster might keep the SNP’s head down for a while, but there are plenty of other heads to take its place.

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As far back as 1977, a collection of Tom Nairn’s essays appeared under the title, The Break Up of Britain. The essays discussed the multiple solvents weakening the “glue” historically holding the UK together. “Britishness” and exceptionalism, traditionally grounded in a shared sense of geography, ethnicity, religion, empire and immunity from invasion, were dissolving. In the intervening years, the “glue” has been further stress tested by new challenges including Brexit, Covid and significant demographic change in Northern Ireland.

A few years back I had the opportunity to chat with a former Irish prime minister. The conversation eventually meandered around to the topic of Irish unification. He felt the changing demographic in the North made it increasingly likely that a future plebiscite in Ulster would deliver a majority for unification. He added the people of the Republic should also be asked their opinion. Furthermore, he was far from sure there would be a majority for unification in the South, as some would see Ulster as an economic and political millstone. Since then, Brexit has been added to the mix. As in Scotland, a majority in Northern Ireland favoured remaining in the EU. Brexit happened anyway, creating a virtual border in the Irish Sea, further strengthening the case for a united Ireland. Recent polls, particularly amongst young people, suggest at the very least, considerably more open-mindedness about unification. Like many others, I was astonished by Scottish Secretary Alister Jack’s suggestion that Brexit is now “in the rear mirror”. Possibly, Mr Jack hasn’t been to Ireland recently and thinks the resentment that led even Arlene Foster to talk of “betrayal”, has gone away.

Wales differed from Scotland and Northern Ireland, with a narrow majority voting to leave the EU. A recent ITV poll suggests there is now a majority in favour of re-joining. In the past, fierce pride in Welsh culture and language, hasn’t translated into mass support for independence. The Welsh dragon’s roar has been muted. Change appears to be afoot though, fuelled by the devolved response to Covid. A recent YouGov survey indicated only around 50 per cent definitely opposing Welsh independence. Significantly, support is strongest amongst the young.

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While the Irish and Welsh wedges widen and deepen existing fissures, there is an even more powerful force at work. In his book, How Britain Ends, journalist and broadcaster Gavin Esler, focuses on the emergence of English nationalism. He suggests that, “While the United Kingdom can survive Irish, Scottish and Welsh nationalisms, it cannot survive English nationalism”. In general, the English have been tolerant of the many Scottish ministers in UK governments. By the time of Gordon Brown’s premiership, tolerance was wearing thin, as demonstrated by Jeremy Paxman’s rant, “Down here, we live under a sort of Scottish Raj”. Growing English scepticism about the value of the Union was apparent during the Brexit campaign. Lord Ashcroft’s polls indicated that in England, a majority of Conservative voters believed Brexit trumped maintaining the integrity of the UK. The perception that Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales are doing better out of public finances has further fuelled English resentment and nationalism. Any residual sense of “Britishness” is being supplanted by a growing sense of “Englishness”. The right -wing Institute of Public Policy Research claims the English “dog has finally barked” and there are, “notable concerns… about the seeming privileges of Scotland in particular”. It’s unlikely the current proliferation of Union flags and a joint bid for the 2030 World Cup will make those sentiments go away.

Tom Nairn recently predicted the UK will break up within five years. If so, Mr Johnson’s Union Unit would be well advised to focus on the Hydra furth of Scotland. English resentment and nationalism saw off the EU and may well be on a roll. Home grown unionists face an uncomfortable truth; it may be forces beyond our borders and control, that determine Scotland’s future.

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