What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.

Nicola Sturgeon might prove the worth of that old adage, later this week.

Not only is talk of her political demise exaggerated, there’s a slim chance the First Minister’s credentials as a "bonnie fechter" will have been enhanced if she survives. And if she goes, her resignation may not create the Yes/SNP meltdown many expect.

Those are tall-sounding claims, for sure.

As both inquiries into the Alex Salmond case look set to report, the First Minister’s jaiket has never been on a shooglier peg.

There are inconsistencies in the First Minister’s account of her response to complaints against her predecessor – when she first knew, whether she promised to intervene, whether a senior civil servant leaked a complainant’s name, whether she really exchanged no details with SNP CEO husband Peter Murrell and why her government ploughed on with a civil case they looked increasingly likely to lose.

Yet these weaknesses in her testimony still look more cock-up than conspiracy and in general, relate to the actions of other people.

So, if the Holyrood inquiry and separate investigation by Irish QC James Hamilton both conclude Nicola Sturgeon did not knowingly mislead Parliament, she will likely tough it out and face down the no confidence vote planned by the Scottish Conservatives for the last day of term – Thursday, 25th March.

Will the SNP leader survive that vote?

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Much depends on whether someone in her government has "volunteered" to take the rap. The First Minister’s hung onto chief civil servant Leslie Evans, but she is tipped to resign once the parliamentary process is complete. The FM’s senior adviser Liz Lloyd may also quit or just disappear from the new SNP line-up. Peter Murrell may also retire as SNP chief executive – somewhere down the line. And either this week or after the election, Nicola Sturgeon will make a fulsome public apology.

All of which might persuade the Scottish Greens that enough pain has been felt and enough lessons learned to let them support the First Minister in this week's confidence vote, leaving Labour and the LibDems with an awkward decision –whether to abstain, back the "nationalists" before a pivotal election or fall in meekly behind the Scottish Conservatives – just as tricky.

Much depends on public opinion.

And when it comes to the bit, I’d guess most undecided voters will not want to see the back of a popular, articulate leader who got Scotland through Covid, simply because her sidekicks made diary mistakes. Especially if those aides take responsibility and resign when the inquiries have reported.

Of course, there will always be lingering doubts about Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership. They may even be right. But just as armchair fitba analysts can argue forever over missed penalties without changing the final score, so post-inquiry commentators will keep rehearsing the evidence, without any hope of changing the actual result.

If Sturgeon is thrown a political lifeline by the official inquiries, most undecided voters will be ready to move on.

There’s even the chance her decision to come out fighting has won some admiration. It’s certainly provoked grudging respect from former adversaries, who describe the First Minster and her predecessor as Britain’s most capable politicians. In addition to these high-profile, back-handed media compliments, Sturgeon’s profile has also changed. Alex Salmond was once the gambler and risk-taker whilst Sturgeon was risk-averse and cautious. No longer. If Sturgeon survives it’s because she has gambled and won.

Of course, that won’t win over everyone.

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Some voters will feel their trust has been shattered. Others – who expect sharp practice from all politicians – may simply shrug.

But ironically, the ill-timed Tory vote of no confidence – called before the FM had even given evidence – seems to have been a rallying moment for many independence supporters who've decided they admire the FM's grit more than they object to her selective memory or preoccupation with identity politics.

Indeed, by prematurely piling on the pressure, Murdo Fraser and Douglas Ross could just have saved the First Minister’s skin.

Boris Johnson has also helped – "misleading Parliament pretty much every time he opens his mouth" according to comedian David Schneider. The latest of seven ministerial code breaches occurred last week with the revelation that the Prime Minister’s office has failed to disclose millions of pounds worth of outside earnings by Cabinet ministers. Yet no action is taken. No eyebrows have even been raised.

Accountability at Holyrood contrasts visibly with untouchability at Westminster. And since this election will inevitably be a Game of Two Governments, the mere fact Holyrood has had a public and increasingly muscular inquiry process is a small feather in its cap.

Of course, if the Hamilton or Harassment Committee reports leave no wriggle room in their verdicts, Nicola Sturgeon still faces having to resign. If that happens, there will undoubtedly be upheaval. But the goodwill accumulated over her six years in office and 12 months handling the pandemic, will likely transfer to her successor – if he or she is even remotely credible.

Naturally, there is another perspective.

Andrew Neil observed yesterday that many unionists privately hope the First Minister stays in post because the "civil war" with Alex Salmond has "turned her into a liability who could scupper the SNP’s hopes of an overall majority".

And he asks: "If May’s elections produce a result that secures the Union for the foreseeable future… what would be the point in her hanging around?"

It would certainly be a mistake for Nicola Sturgeon’s to treat "victory" as an excuse to exert further control. If she does survive this week, the SNP leader should emerge from lofty isolation, widen the base of decision-making around her, modernise her management "team" and apologise.

But Neil’s prognosis is also a telling admission. Should the "impossible" happen and the SNP win a working majority, then a second indyref is politically inevitable.

And there could be no greater rallying cry, no prospect more guaranteed to focus minds behind the battle-scarred but defiant Nicola Sturgeon, than that simple reality.

The May elections will not be another false dawn. It really is all there to play for this time.

And that may be enough to see her through.

Our columns are a platform for writers to express their opinions. They do not necessarily represent the views of The Herald.