For some nations, big or small, their presence resonates far and wide in a way that it doesn’t for others. Be it that country’s birth pangs, past exploits in its evolution, chosen leaders, or its standing in the wider world, each of these seems to have had some bearing on that resonance.

Sometimes the country’s role and impact on global affairs is real and justified, sometimes mythologised and romanticised. Often, too, these nations are viewed by outsiders as either the devil incarnate, or as beacons of hope, depending on an individual’s political take on the world.

Cuba is such a country, and like any that has impacted on our modern global political landscape, key dates have become signposts in tracking its most pivotal moments.

This week two dates were marked in Cuba’s national diary that have their origins in events of 60 years ago. The first was the anniversary of the now infamous Bay of Pigs invasion when on April 17, 1961, a force of nearly 1,500 men, secretly aided by America’s CIA and Navy, stormed southern Cuba in an undercover operation that sent political around shockwaves around the world.

Subsequently it would be recognised as one of the biggest blunders in the history of US intelligence operations. That failed Cold War operation was of course aimed at toppling the rule of Fidel Castro’s communist revolutionary government that itself had previously overthrown the government of Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959.

Ever since then Cuba has been led by a Castro until earlier this week, as the second of those historical dates for the national diary was realised, when Fidel’s brother Raul Castro left the political stage ceding power to a younger generation who face fresh challenges in the face of Cuba’s dire economic crisis and growing political dissent.

In this Cuba after the Castros, that job now falls to Miguel Diaz-Canel who on Monday was elected as First Secretary of the ruling Communist Party and effective head of state.

Mr Diaz-Canel is a man who has risen steadily through the ranks of Cuba’s bureaucracy with a reputation as a capable but cautious leader focused on economic reform.

But those thinking his appointment marks a significant break in the political continuity of the Castro years should think again. Raul Castro after all was determined, as highlighted in a recent speech, to leave “a foot in a stirrup ready to defend socialism,” and that is pretty much what has happened.

That said, Mr Diaz-Canal is of a different breed from his revolutionary guerilla comandante forbears who seized power in 1959 and have since all died or aged. An engineer by training and said by Cuba watchers to lack the political charisma of the Castro brothers, Mr Diaz-Canel nevertheless might just yet bring the political skillset needed to see Cuba through the rocky phase it’s now undergoing.

Those looking for a more significant shift away from Cuba’s one-party state system don’t see it that way however, already casting Mr Diaz-Canel as just another ‘Castro’ appointee and apparatchik.

This burbling dissent among some of the 11 million people who make up this small country, whose political history and influence punch way above its size, is only one of the key issues Mr Diaz-Canel must keep an eye on right now. Not least given that such rumblings are inextricably connected to Cuba’s wider substantial economic woes which in turn have been compounded by the coronavirus pandemic.

For many Cubans, particularly those of a younger generation, the time they spent thinking about Mr Diaz-Canel’s appointment was probably considerably shorter than they spend daily queuing to secure basic foodstuffs and necessities.

Vital imports such as food, fuel and raw materials fell 40 per cent and the economy contracted 11 per cent in 2020, according to the government. Cuba imports more than 60 per cent of the food it consumes and tourism, a key source of income, was decimated by the pandemic.

Other outside political factors, too, compound Cuba’s economic problems as they always have, not least US sanctions. Few US leaders have had it in for Cuba as much as former president Donald Trump. It was Mr Trump that derailed one of Raoul Castro’s most significant achievements, the 2016 detente with the Obama administration.

To date, Joe Biden’s administration while reviewing the Trump policy, including his branding of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism, has shown little interest in moving on relations with Havana, but then again Mr Biden has his work cut out elsewhere, not least at home.

Mr Biden’s apparent hesitancy over Cuba has only prompted the country’s exiles and dissidents, notably the noisy oppositional cabal in Miami, to demand the US president continues to turn the screw on Havana. Meanwhile the opposition itself via social media urges Cubans to revolt in what it regards as a collapsing country.

Bad as its economic plight might be though, Cuba has been here before. Whether one admires or loathes what its government represents and its track record on issues like human rights, Cuba has shown itself time and again to be a remarkable political survivor. Cubans may grumble about the country and its failure to improve their lot but equally they are fiercely proud of what they have achieved.

That said, the fault line for the future many well prove to be a generational one. While those remaining of the Castro years remember Batista’s dictatorship and remain loyal to the revolution, some among a younger generation while benefitting from the free education and a remarkable health system that came from socialism, do expect, and want more.

Understandable as such frustration is, young Cubans might prove wrong to view such past achievements altogether negatively or dismiss them lightly. Cuba’s long history of top-class medical research for example has stood it in relatively good stead during the pandemic.

Currently its research teams have five vaccine candidates, and one, the Soberana 2, appears to be highly effective and is entering the final stage of clinical trials.

If successful, Cuba would be the first Latin American country to make its own vaccine, no mean feat when compared to the disastrous response in some neighbouring regional giants like Brazil.

Last Monday, when Raul Castro retired, he had a warning for this nation that in so many ways has long been an outlier. His warning spoke to a country increasingly divided over the legacy of its famous communist revolution: The choice at hand is continuity of the revolution’s ideals, or defeat. Only time will tell which Mr Diaz-Canel, and his fellow Cubans will choose, but whatever they decide it will, as ever, certainly resonate.

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