Scottish independence: Lord Ashcroft poll finds 51% No versus 49% Yes

It also found 49% are likely to vote SNP in the constituency ballot in the upcoming Holyrood election - giving Nicola Sturgeon's party a three-seat majority.

A total of 2,017 people were interviewed between April 7 and 19, while eight online focus groups were also held.

For the constituency votes, the SNP are forecast to poll 49%, the Scottish Conservatives 22%, Scottish Labour 15%, the Liberal Democrats 8% and the Greens 5%.

In the regional list vote, the SNP are on 42%, the Conservatives are on 22%, Labour on 16%, the Greens on 9% and the Lib Dems on 7%. Alba and Reform UK are each on 2%.

This would see both the Conservatives and Labour lose seats, while the Greens and the Lib Dems would enjoy gains. 

Alba and Reform UK would fail to pick up a seat, and if the election mirrors the poll result the makeup of Holyrood would be 66 SNP MSPs, 28 Conservatives, 18 for Scottish Labour, ten Greens and seven Lib Dems. 

Lord Ashcroft’s poll measured those who said they are more than 50% likely to vote for at least one party.

When poll participants were asked what matters to them most, the top three issues identified were healthcare and the NHS (43%), Covid-19 (42%) and the economy (33%).

Some 34% of SNP supporters listed “getting another Scottish independence referendum” among their top three issues.

Meanwhile, 42% of Conservative supporters listed “preventing another Scottish independence referendum” among their top three issues.

READ MORE: SNP 'on course for five-seat majority with Labour in second'

Discussing the findings on his website, Lord Ashcroft said: “The independence debate continues to sit on a knife-edge.

“In my 2,000-sample survey, the 51-49 margin for staying in the UK amounts to a statistical dead heat.

“To the frustration of many voters on all sides who would rather talk about something else, the question still dominates the agenda: nearly as many people say they will use their votes next week to prevent a new referendum as to try and secure one.

“Not only does the SNP maintain its clear lead in the Holyrood elections, its support is more intense: those naming the nationalists as their most likely choice put their chances of actually turning out to vote for them higher than those of other parties’ potential backers.”

The poll measured those 50% or more likely to vote for a party

Lord Ashcroft noted that some on the Yes side had expressed concern about the impact of independence on Scotland’s economy.

Regardless of partisanship, 64% believe there will be years of negotiations with the UK Government following a Yes vote.

Asked how Scotland would change after independence, more people said they feel taxes, energy bills, food prices and unemployment will increase rather than decrease.

Lord Ashcroft said: “While not necessarily ready to say they have yet changed their minds, we found some former Yes voters more nervous about independence.

“Though they think (Nicola) Sturgeon has outperformed the Prime Minister, they know that vaccine procurement was a UK effort and doubt whether an independent Scotland could have sustained its own furlough scheme on anything like the scale seen over the past year.

“With oil revenues now offering a less reliable foundation for the Scottish economy, the thought grows that Edinburgh might become not just the architectural but the fiscal Athens of the North.”

Ms Sturgeon is judged to have done a good job

On the pandemic, 64% of voters said they believe Nicola Sturgeon has done a good job as First Minister.

Responding to the poll, Scottish Conservative candidate Annie Wells said: “This election is on a knife-edge and this poll confirms that only the Scottish Conservatives can stop an SNP majority, stop their plan for another referendum, and get all of the focus on to rebuilding Scotland.

“The once-great Labour Party are on course for their worst result ever. They’re too weak now to challenge the SNP.

“It’s clear why ex-Labour voters are lending their peach ballots to the Scottish Conservatives.”

READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon's SNP majority threatened as Alex Salmond's Alba Party could take key votes

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “This election remains poised on a knife-edge in terms of whether the SNP will win an overall majority, underlining the importance of giving both votes to the SNP to re-elect Nicola Sturgeon.

“This poll demonstrates that people recognise the strong leadership shown by the First Minister throughout the pandemic and into recovery.

“The SNP has delivered a bold and ambitious programme for the future which is in stark contrast to the petty political game-playing by the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems.”