Professor John Curtice has said that the current election polls suggest the SNP is likely to miss out on a majority in the Scottish election.
A slew of surveys this week have had Ms Sturgeon's party balanced on a knife-edge of securing total control of Holyrood or just coming up short.
Looking at the trend, Scotland's polling expert said there was one "major headline" - that support for the SNP is slipping.
He also believes that Alex Salmond's Alba party is going "nowhere", with polls consistently indicating it will fail to gain the 6% of the list vote needed to return an MSP.
However, he said there will be a majority of parties supporting Scottish independence at Holyrood after next month - with the Scottish Greens set for a 'record' result.
Professor Curtice said: “There’s one pretty major headline. If you compare the polls with the beginning of the campaign, support for independence is lower, and support for the SNP is lower.
“This could be the difference between the SNP getting a majority or not, and as that was only about 50% at the beginning of the campaign it’s probably less now.
"As people who support the SNP support independence, this is what you'd expect."
Nicola Sturgeon has been on the campaign trail
On the other parties' fortunes, Prof Curtice said : “There’s some signs Labour are improving. They are neck-and-neck with the Conservatives on the constituency vote, but still behind on the list vote.”
He added: “Alba is nowhere. We are seeing them getting 1-3% across the polls, except for Panelbase. The Lib Dems are staying about the same.
"But there will still be an independence majority [at the Scottish parliament] because the Greens look as though they could have a record performance.”
This week's polls:
Sunday Post/Survation, 25 April
The results put the SNP ahead in both constituency and list votes, on 50% and 35% respectively. Labour sit on 21% and 22%, the Tories 21% and 20%, and the Lib Dems on 7% for both votes. The Greens are on 10% in the list and Salmond’s Alba Party on just 3%.
It is estimated this would translate to 67 seats for the SNP, giving Nicola Sturgeon a majority of five. Labour would be second with 24, the Tories 22, the Greens 11 and the Lib Dems 5.
The poll also found that support for Scottish independence remains on a knife-edge, with 51% opposed and 49% in favour. However, the numbers are flipped to 2% in favour of ‘Yes’ when people were asked if Scotland was allowed to rejoin the EU after leaving the UK.
Willie Rennie is doggedly pursuing votes
Scot Goes Pop/Panelbase, 27th April
The website predicted the next Scottish Parliament would be made up of 61 SNP MSPs (down two from 2016), 24 Conservatives (down seven), 20 Labour 20 (down four), 11 Greens 11 (an increase of five), eight for Alba 8 and five for the Liberal Democrats 5.
Panelbase estimated that the SNP would gain 45% of the constituency vote, Labour 22%, the Conservatives 20%, the Lib Dems 8% and the Greens 4%.
In the regional list ballot, the SNP were predicted to receive 36%, the Conservatives 21%, Labour 18%, Greens 10%, Alba 6%, the Liberal Democrats 6% and George Galloway's All for Unity party 2%.
On Scottish Inpependence, the poll found Yes on 49.3%, No 50.7%.
Douglas Ross has an anti-Indyref message
A total of 2,017 people were interviewed between April 7 and 19, while eight online focus groups were also held.
This poll found 49% are likely to vote SNP in the constituency ballot in the upcoming Holyrood election - giving Nicola Sturgeon's party a three-seat majority.
For the constituency votes, the SNP are forecast to poll 49%, the Scottish Conservatives 22%, Scottish Labour 15%, the Liberal Democrats 8% and the Greens 5%.
In the regional list vote, the SNP are on 42%, the Conservatives are on 22%, Labour on 16%, the Greens on 9% and the Lib Dems on 7%. Alba and Reform UK are each on 2%.
This would see both the Conservatives and Labour lose seats, while the Greens and the Lib Dems would enjoy gains.
Alba and Reform UK would fail to pick up a seat, and if the election mirrors the poll result the makeup of Holyrood would be 66 SNP MSPs, 28 Conservatives, 18 for Scottish Labour, ten Greens and seven Lib Dems.
The opinion poll suggested independence support on a 'knife-edge' with support for a Yes vote at 49% and No on 51%
Could a record result for the Scottish Greens be in the air?
This survey suggest the Scottish National Party be four seats short of a majority - and would lose two.
Douglas Ross’s Scottish Conservatives were comfortably in second place ahead and were predicted to see 23 per cent of voters back them on the constituency list, with 22 per cent of voters backing the party on the list.
Such a result would see Mr Ross sent to Holyrood as leader with a total of 28 MSPs, down three from their result of 31 under Ruth Davidson.
Scottish Labour are the most improved party in the constituency vote, with 23 per cent of voters saying they would back the party.
This, alongside a higher regional list voting intention of 19 per cent, up two points, would see new leader Anas Sarwar returned to Holyrood with 24 MSPs – exactly the same number as in 2016.
Anas Sarwar is fighting to get Scottish Labour back on track
Should the result after May 6 match this poll, the Scottish Greens will see their record result at any Holyrood election with 10 per cent of the regional list vote.
Such a result would see the party return 11 MSPs, up from the six elected in 2016.
This poll suggested support for independence has slid to just 42 per cent, the lowest level since the last general election
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