The worst polling for the SNP since October 2019 reveals the party could miss out on a majority by six seats in the Holyrood election.

The new poll, conducted by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, projects the SNP will secure 42% of the constituency vote and 34% of the list vote.

This would see it return 59 MSPs - four below the 2016 result.

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A total of 65 is needed for a majority.

The poll included a survey of 1,001 Scottish adults aged 18 or over which was carried out between April 30 and May 4.

However, the poll shows there would still be a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, since the Scottish Greens are projected to return nine MSPs with 9% of the list vote.

That's three more than the party returned in 2016.


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The poll also found that support for Scottish independence is split, with 50% saying they would vote No if a referendum were to be held tomorrow.

A total of 42% said they would vote Yes, with the remaining 8% saying they do not know.

When the 'don't knows' are excluded, support for independence was at 46% while support for the union is at 54%.

Meanwhile, the poll projects the Scottish Conservatives will return 30 MSPs, one down on 2016, with 25% of the the constituency vote and 23% of the list vote.

Scottish Labour is predicted to return 26 MSPs, two more than five years ago, with 22% of the constituency and 19% of the list vote.

According to the poll, the Scottish Lib Dems will secure 8% of the constituency and 6% of the list vote which would see them return five MSPs, no change on 2016.

Alex Salmond’s Alba party would return no MSPs, according to the research.

It comes after a survey for The Times, published on Tuesday evening, suggested the SNP is set for a four-seat majority.


READ MORE: Final Times poll forecasts SNP and major gains for Greens

The final study by YouGov for The Times of 1,144 Scots, released just hours before the last televised debate, put the SNP on 52% in the constituency and 38% on the regional list, and suggests the Scottish Greens will take 13% of the regional vote.

It also found 45% of people would vote yes in a referendum on Scottish independence while 55% would vote no, when undecided voters were excluded.

Modelling by polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has the SNP on 68 seats, a majority of four, while the Greens will take 13 seats, more than double their current haul of five.

The Alba Party, led by Alex Salmond, would also pick up a seat after receiving 3% of the vote, with the seat likely to come in the Mid Scotland and Fife region – where it received 7% of the vote in the YouGov study.

A seat for Mr Salmond’s party would see Eva Comrie take her place in Holyrood among 81 other independence-supporting MSPs.

The Scottish Tories, according to the poll, are set to win 26 seats, down five from the last election, but will retain a tight hold on second place as Labour could drop to 17 seats – losing seven.

YouGov surveyed 1,144 people aged 16 or older between May 2 and May 4.