Covid-19 case rates are rising in almost all of Scotland's local council areas  for the first time since early January, new analysis shows.

The figures come as the Scottish Government paused a relaxing of rules in parts of central Scotland while there have been warnings that a 'third wave' of the virus is underway. 

However, rise in rates has yet to be mirrored by a steady increase in Covid-19 hospital cases, with the latest data showing patient numbers have climbed slightly to levels last seen at the end of May.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people has increased in 29 out of Scotland's local authority areas, and fallen in two. Only in Shetland, where there are currently no Covid cases, has the rate remained unchanged.  

Climbing rates of infection are being mirrored across the UK with nearly three-quarters of local areas  - 283 out of 380 - recording a week-on-week rise in Covid-19 case rates for the seven days to June 2. 

This is the highest proportion since January 6. 

The Herald:

The rise in infection rates has not been mirrored in hospitalisations

In Scotland, steep jumps have been recorded in South Ayrshire (from 46.2 to 158.1), Edinburgh (65.9 to 134.3) and Angus (21.5 to 87.8).

In Highland the rate has increased from 7.6 to 42 after cases recorded in a week jumped from 18 to 99, while in East Ayrshire the case rate per 100,000 more than doubled from 36.1 to 87.7. 

READ MORE: Scottish Government confirms more than 640 new cases in 24 hours

In Dundee, cases rose by 69 from 113 to 182, with the rate increasing from 75 to 121.9. Glasgow, previously one of the country's Covid hotspots and the only area to stay in level three restrictions in June, saw its rate rise slightly from 135 to 136. 

 

Health Secretary Matt Hancock indicated ministers at Westminster were open to delaying the easing of restrictions in England scheduled for June 21, while the Scottish Government has paused a relaxing of rules in parts of central Scotland.

When using a seven-day average to flatten out fluctuations in the data, 256 of 380 local areas in the UK are currently recording a rise in rates – the highest number since January 10.

The analysis has been compiled by the Herald and PA news agency using Public Health England data published on Sunday on the Government’s coronavirus dashboard.

Data for the most recent four days (June 3-6) has been excluded as it is incomplete and does not reflect the true number of cases.

Blackburn with Darwen in Lancashire continues to record the highest rate in the UK, with 515.7 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to June 2, up from 390.8 a week earlier.

READ MORE: Edinburgh overtakes Glasgow for Covid rates

It is one of 28 local authorities currently recording rates above 100 cases per 100,000 – the highest number since March 28.

Other areas that are now above this threshold include Stockport (up week-on-week from 50.4 to 146.2), Trafford (54.8 to 117.5) and Wigan (66.6 to 116.5) in Greater Manchester, along with Chorley (79.5 to 122.7), Preston (95.0 to 169.8) and Pendle (72.7 to 107.5) in Lancashire.

The Herald:

Eight of the 10 areas in Greater Manchester are currently above 100 cases per 100,000 – though one of them, Bolton, is continuing to record a fall in rates, and is currently down week-on-week from 390.5 to 318.2.

Outside north-west England, sharp increases have been recorded in places including Staffordshire Moorlands (from 5.1 to 81.3), Bracknell Forest in Berkshire (20.4 to 94.7) and Three Rivers in Hertfordshire (15.0 to 71.8).

The rise in rates in these and other areas is being driven partly by surge testing to detect cases of the Covid-19 variant that originated in India, also known as the Delta variant.

But separate figures published on Friday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest infection levels are now rising more generally in England, with around one in 640 people in private households estimated to have had Covid-19 in the week to May 29 – up from one in 1,120 in the previous week.

Across England, three-quarters of local areas are currently seeing a rise in rates, including 30 of the 32 local authority areas in London and 35 out of 39 in north-west England, while in Scotland rates are up in 31 of the 32 council areas.

The trend is less clear in the other two nations, with with half of the local areas in Wales (11 of 22) recording a slight rise in the latest figures, together with five of the 11 areas in Northern Ireland.

The Herald:

Nicola Sturgeon has warned of the 'third wave' of the virus 

The UK’s overall rate of new cases stood at 41.6 per 100,000 people in the seven days to June 2 – the highest since 43.9 on March 31.

But this is still well below the peak of the second wave, when the UK’s rate rose as high as 641.8 on January 4.

Speaking last week during her Covid-19 briefing in St Andrew's House, Edinburgh, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wared that Scotland is facing a 'third wave' of the virus.

She said that the vaccine programme is progressing "extremely well" but that Scotland is at a "criticial juncture" in the pandemic crisis.

Ms Sturgeon said: "On the downside, as we can see cases are rising again, they have more than tripled over the last month, and today the more than 900 cases that have been reported is the highest number of new cases since the 17 February.

"The R number is now estimated to be above 1, indeed many experts believe that not just Scotland but the UK is at the start of a third wave of Covid. Underlying this and indeed driving all of this is the new Delta variant that makes up the majority of new cases in Scotland.