OKAY, time to move on to another sport. The Tenner Bet has exhausted all avenues in attempting to find a winner to kick-start the football season but, when trebles are falling down because previously unbeaten Fulham lose at hitherto winless Blackpool or top scoring Forest Green Rovers draw 0-0 at goal-a-game Exeter, it’s clear there is a juju curse at work.

This week in the Tenner Bet household, we have been busying ourselves for an attack on the markets by throwing salt over our shoulders, burning sage, and cleansing our chakras with fresh flowers (that’s what it says in the book, anyway). Mostly, though, Mrs Tenner Bet has been showing me how to pull together a spreadsheet. Why?

Well, it is Ayr Gold Cup week and frequent readers will know that The Tenner Bet is partial to trend betting and the Ayr Gold Cup has, historically, got some very strong patterns.

For example, over the past 20 runnings of the race, there is a
100 per cent record for horses that ran within the last seven weeks, and a 90 per cent record for those that raced in the last month. Form is not so important – 15 previous winners failed to win their previous race but 13 of 20 did finish in the top four while three career victories is another positive.

The profile also shows us that we are looking for a horse aged four or five and definitely not aged seven or older.

Historically, it has not been a great race for the market leader over the past 20 years but that trend seems to be changing with three favourites getting home out of the previous six with one finishing in the places. Meanwhile, those who have won at the race distance of six furlongs previously trend heavily at 15 out of 20.

There are a number of other lines that can be followed – for example this race is a cavalry charge which is what you would expect with 25 in the field and history favours a high draw – so we have factored those into the shortlisting process. This is the richest meeting in the Scottish flat season so it is fairly obvious that some of the best handicap sprinters will be here today but it makes some of the trends a tad obvious.

Nevertheless, having crunched the numbers on weight, recent outings, draw and trip, seven horses make the cut although Great Ambassador, the favourite, is not one of them. Check through the returns of recent years and you will find that there are some high price winners of this race and that tallies with the names we are left with: Motagally, Edraak, Sunday Sovereign, Mr Wagyu, Popmaster, Gulliver and Just Frank.

Of those the latter four are outside the age profile. The horse that ticks all of the main trend boxes is the Charles Hills-trained Motagally, ridden by Paul Hanagan, but the five-year-old has been struggling for form hence its 25/1 price. On the basis that he can replicate his form of old, we will take a chance on him each-way.

The second pick is Mick Appleby’s Edraak, who disappointed last time out at Haydock. He was a fancied outsider for this race before fourth place that day which curtailed ambitions. Again, this punt is dependent on a horse returning to better form but with the bonus that he, too, is priced at double figures (28/1).

The final selection is for the in-form Tim Easterby’s Sunday Sovereign (25/1), a winner last time out at Chester.

Selection: Motagally ew (25/1, Sky Bet, paying seven places); Edraak ew (28/1, Bet Victor, six places); Sunday Sovereign ew (25/1, Bet Victor).

Season’s total: -£50