James Forrest regression means Celtic would be wise to hold fire on new deal - Owen Brown

">Expected Goals per 90 is higher now than it was in 2018/19 when he was SPFL Player of the Year.

In his 600 Scottish Premiership minutes, Forrest has contrived to miss chances that total 3.44 xG. So, has he just been unlucky? And does it seem likely that his luck will change, he’ll net a few goals in a short space of time, and the perception of his performance this season will also turn?

If the goals come towards the end of the season and help secure the title, coupled with a sentimental attitude towards the only remaining player at the club who contributed to every season of the nine-in-a-row triumph, this could lead to an ill-judged offer to extend Forrest’s contract beyond its current end date of 2023. Sometimes, if you’ll forgive the forest-related pun, football decision-makers can’t see the wood for the trees.

To determine if he should be renewed beyond 2023 we’ll review Forrest’s five biggest missed chances of 2021/22 before drilling into the data and comparing stats from this season against that stellar 2018/19 campaign.

In the 93rd minute of the opening Scottish Premiership match of the season, Forrest made a brilliant spinning turn in the box to elude John Souttar but then took an unnecessary touch, instead of letting the ball run across his body, and sliced a wild shot narrowly wide. This 0.41xG chance is most memorable for the fact it could have salvaged a draw for Celtic.

Against Livingston in late October Forrest again missed a very late chance to secure a better result. In the 94th minute, with the score at 0-0, Forrest got himself free in the box just twelve yards from goal but whiffed at a low Mikey Johnston cross with his left foot. His shot, recorded at 0.19 xG by StatsBomb, is heading wide and is helped on its way by a similarly poor Giorgos Giakoumakis connection.

On the 2nd of December, just 9 minutes into facing Hearts at home, Forrest had a close-in opportunity rated as 0.91 xG. A combination of Craig Gordon’s incredible reactions to touch the ball just before it was struck and a bit of a lack of killer anticipation and speed from the Celtic player resulted in this not being a goal.

In that same match, with Celtic fortunately already leading at 1-0 at this point, Forrest had another big late chance. Kyogo Furuhashi passed him through for a 0.50 xG 1v1 against goalkeeper Craig Gordon in the 83rd minute. Once again Forrest took an unnecessary touch, slowing play down and allowing Gordon to close down the angles and make a save.

Just 3 minutes into the mid-December match against Motherwell, Forrest combined well with Callum McGregor to create a great chance for himself. However, he rushed and clipped his shot just wide, missing this 0.50 xG opportunity.

General themes that start to appear from analysis of these chances include their timing, a reticence to strike the ball first time and the player’s ability to find free space in the box.

Each of these chances is towards the start or end of a match with two of the five in very late injury time. This could lead to theorising that there is a psychological aspect to the misses. I’d be cautious about this but it is noteworthy that their timing will make these opportunities memorable for fans and impact perception of Forrest more than if they were at other stages of a game.

For several of these chances, whether connecting poorly or taking a needless touch, Forrest fails to strike first time when he should. His confidence could be affected and he may be readjusting to the pace of the game after injury but this is an issue, although potentially difficult late in his career, he can attempt to correct.

Finally, a positive is that Forrest is getting the chances. He’s displaying excellent movement to find space in the box and if he keeps doing this he should start scoring. A problem here is that sometimes people think that reversion to the mean is automatic and guaranteed and that if a player is performing under expectation for xG it will even out by the end of the season.

However, since the turn of the year, Forrest just isn’t doing the same things at all. He’s spent more time filling in at left wing, playing tighter to the touchline, and the average xG of his shots has decreased dramatically from 0.30 to 0.05. Reverting to the mean would require him to be following the same processes which led to those earlier chances.

It's not just in terms of goals that Forrest’s decline has become evident. He’s always had an unconventional running style off the ball but a post-injury and age-related dip in his acceleration has meant his dribbling has become awkward at times. His body position, particularly on the left flank when attempting to drive past defenders onto his left foot, is often angled too far away from the ball which means if he does get room for a cross it is sliced too close to goal.

As a result Forrest isn’t providing chances for his teammates to the extent that he used to or at the level his competitors for a spot on the wing are.

In 2018/19 Forrest made 0.32 open play Assists per 90 in the league. This season that number is just 0.14 per 90. That decline has been coming - and is supported by the underlying data - with an open play Expected Assists per 90 of 0.23 in 2018/19, 0.24 in 2019/20, 0.16 in 2020/21 and 0.15 in 2021/22.

In contrast, Jota has very similar numbers to Forrest from a few seasons ago with 0.37 open play Assists per 90 from 0.26 open play xA per 90 while Liel Abada is actually lagging behind his excellent data with 0.21 open play Assists per 90 from 0.30 open play xA per 90.

Other possible statistical evidence of Forrest’s decline includes the fact that, even in Ange Postecoglou’s high-intensity system, he is pressing less than he did in the past. In the 2018/19 season he made over seventeen possession adjusted pressures per 90 whereas this season he makes fourteen. He’s also less successful with his dribbles, completing just 55% of those compared to 63% in that standout campaign.

Finally, he completed 76% of his passes when under pressure in 2018/19, 78% of them in 2019/20 and 77% of them in 2020/21 but just 71% this season. Jota and Abada complete 78% and 77% respectively.

Forrest, 31 this July, is a good example of the general downturn that comes for all players, and especially wingers, with age. While it is a frustration that within the space of two and a half years the player has changed from stand-out to bit-part, he can still be a useful squad member and a mentor for a highly promising clutch of youngsters such as Ben Doak and Rocco Vata.

The one club man does deserve huge respect for his part in so many Celtic successes and the significant number of goals and assists he’s provided for the club throughout his career. However, in terms of offering a contract extension it should be less “Run (James) Forrest, Run!” and more “Walk away Celtic, walk away!”.