Scotland's radiologist shortfall 'set to hit 30 per cent by 2026'

However, this is projected to increase to 189 - or a 30% shortfall - by 2026 amid a rise in part-time working, trainee shortages, and the impact of stress and burnout leading more senior medics to quit or retire early at a time when record numbers of patients are on waiting lists for CT scans, MRIs and diagnostic ultrasounds.

While 'significant' the projected shortfall in radiologists in Scotland by 2026 - at 30 per cent - would be lower than the other UK nations (Source: RCR)

Clinical radiologists are the vital medical specialists required to analyse scans for signs of cancer or other disease, while interventional radiologists carry out minimally-invasive image-guided procedures such as aneurysm repair, which has been shown to cut the length of time patients spend in hospital and to improve recovery - for example, after a stroke.

READ MORE: Thousands stranded in A&E amid spiralling bed and nurse shortages 

Across the UK, the report found that a total of 200 radiologist posts have been unfilled for a year or more, with the NHS as a whole becoming increasingly reliant on overseas doctors to plug gaps.

By September last year, 25% of clinical radiology consultants had been trained outside the European Economic Area - up from 20% in 2016.

In Scotland, looming shortages of clinical oncologists - the doctors who treat cancer - were also highlighted in the report, with the shortfall projected to increase from 13% now to 21% by 2026.

The RCR census of cancer centre heads of service found that eight in ten of those based in Scotland are concerned that workforce shortages are impacting on patient care - the highest level of concern in the UK.

Every month cancer treatment is delayed raises the risk of death by around 10%.

READ MORE: 'Risk to patient safety' on 33 wards of Glasgow superhospital at peak of last Covid wave 

RCR President, Jeanette Dickson, said: "The situation we’re in is simply unsustainable, and as these reports show, the impact of doctor shortages is being felt across the country and affecting our ability to diagnose devastating illnesses such as heart disease and stroke, but also our ability to diagnose and treat cancer in a timely manner.

"Doctors are burnt out and if we don’t address these workforce issues soon, the picture is going to get a lot worse in future years.”

Scotland's current shortfall of consultant radiologists is estimated to be 23 per cent, behind England and Wales but exceeding 19 per cent in Northern Ireland (Source: RCR)

Official guidelines state that patients referred for a key diagnostic test - which includes ultrasound, CT and MRI scans used in radiology - should wait no longer than six weeks.

However, the latest figures from Public Health Scotland show that lengthy waits have spiralled as a result of the pandemic, which resulted in all but the most urgent scans being paused and a drop in referrals while routine cancer screening was put on hold and fewer patients went to GPs with symptoms.

The RCR report stressed that million of these “missed scans” UK-wide, on top of the already growing demand for imaging, will have a knock on effect for years to come and “will result in yet more pressure on the [clinical radiology] workforce and will inevitably further impact on waiting times and patient outcomes”.

READ MORE: Nurse and midwifery numbers up by just 280 as thousands quit over job pressure

NHS staff absences due to Covid self-isolation requirements are also slowing efforts to tackle the backlog.

By the end of March this year, around 120,000 people in Scotland were waiting for a diagnostic radiology test - nearly double the pre-pandemic average of 66,000.

In the year before Covid, fewer than 9000 patients on average were waiting over six weeks for a radiology test.

Source: Public Health Scotland

This has now risen to over 55,000, of whom 26,000 have been waiting over 13 weeks - something almost unheard of pre-pandemic.

In Lanarkshire, which had the longest radiology delays in Scotland, two thirds of patients were waiting over six weeks for tests.

By March 31, almost as many patients in Lanarkshire had received an CT scan within seven days (471 patients) as had waited three to six months (462 patients).

In the Greater Glasgow and Clyde (GGC) and Tayside health boards - the next worst performing in Scotland - more than half of patients were waiting over six weeks for a radiology test.

Patients in the Glasgow region, Tayside, and Lanarkshire were facing the longest waits for radiology tests at the end of March 2022 (Source: Public Health Scotland)

Extra mobile CT and MRI units are being targeted to areas with the highest demand, but the RCR report notes that some patients also “wait several weeks for their results to be reported due to the sheer size of workforce shortages”, compounding treatment delays.

The report notes that some areas of Scotland are facing "chronic long-term workforce shortages", with 67% of clinical radiology vacancies in Scotland unfilled for at least a year, and the supply of interventional radiologists - at 8.6 per million - "significantly lower" than England's 11.2 per million.

However, the College praised Scotland for its comparably low spend on outsourcing - half compared to England - and said it was going "from strength to strength" in its use of imaging networks, which pool expertise to speed up how quickly patients can be seen.

Scotland's current and projected shortfalls of radiologists are also below the UK average, but remain "a significant gap, made more concerning by the fact that these shortages are more prevalent in remote regions".

A Scottish Government spokesman said patients referred with an urgent suspicion of cancer "continue to be prioritised" for tests, with the number of consultant oncologists in NHS Scotland having nearly doubled since 2006. 

He added: “Recruitment within the oncology professions is a challenge around the world.

"Detailed recovery plans for Diagnostic Imaging have been developed with each NHS Board to increase capacity, workforce and activity during 2022 and 2023. 

"Six mobile MRI and five mobile CT scanners will also support to help clear waiting lists as boards embed new ways of working and extend hours to improve the delivery of the services going forward.”