Covid Scotland: One in 18 infected as variants drive spike

Scotland continues to have the highest infection rate in the UK, with one in 30 believed to be infected in England and Wales and one in 25 in Northern Ireland.

The Office for National Statistics, which carries out the surveillance, said the continuing increase in cases across the UK is “likely caused by increases in infections compatible with Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5”.

This is being seen “across all ages, countries and regions”, said Sarah Crofts, head of analytical outputs for the Covid-19 infection survey at the ONS.

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In Scotland, the ONS data suggests that up to 79 per cent of infections are now being caused by the BA.4 and BA5 strains, which have previously been associated with surges in South Africa and Portugal.

The remainder are likely to be BA.2 or BA.2.12.1 - a sublineage which is currently the dominant variant in the United States.

The BA.4/5 strains have been designated variants of concern due to evidence of their increased transmissibility, which is believed to be partly due to mutations which enable them to cause reinfections even in people previously exposed to earlier Omicron strains.

The number of Covid positive patients in hospital - a proxy for community prevalence - has doubled from 590 at the end of May to 1,298 by June 26

There is no evidence that they cause more severe disease, but an increase in Covid positive patients in hospital - who have to be separated from non-Covid patients - is once again piling pressure on hospitals and exacerbating bed shortages.

The NHS is also struggling with a rise in staff absent after testing positive.

Bank holiday Platinum Jubilee celebrations were previously linked to a upsurge in cases, but experts said it was too soon to see any impact on UK infection rates from recent large events such as the Glastonbury music festival or the Wimbledon tennis tournament.

Dr Mary Ramsay, director of clinical programmes at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), said: “We continue to see an increase in Covid-19 data, with a rise in case rates and hospitalisations in those aged 65 years and over, and outbreaks in care homes.

“We can also now see a rise in intensive care admissions in older age groups.

“Vaccination remains the best defence against severe disease and hospitalisation. Covid-19 has not gone away and we should all remember to keep up good hand and respiratory hygiene. It is also sensible to wear a face covering in crowded, enclosed spaces.”

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Around one in six people aged 75 and over have not received a vaccine dose within the past six months, putting them more at risk of severe disease, the UKHSA added.

Uptake of the Spring booster among eligible over-75s in Scotland currently ranges from a high of 95.3% in Shetland to lows of 86.3% in Ayrshire and Arran, and 86.4% in Highland.

Hugh Pennington, emeritus professor of bacteriology at the University of Aberdeen, said it was unclear why the virus appears to be spreading faster in Scotland.

Prof Pennington said: “There’s a fair amount of chance involved; it depends on super-spreader events, where the virus was a few months ago and all these kind of things.

“There’s no simple explanation. You could say it’s bad luck we’ve got higher figures than the rest of the UK.

“A lot of people don’t have any symptoms but are still infectious.”

Adam Finn, a professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol said the virus has become “hard to avoid for anyone not in isolation”.

However, he stressed that the number of people becoming seriously ill remains much lower than in 2020 or even 2021, largely due to vaccines.

In Scotland, there are around 1,300 Covid positive patients in hospital but only 16 of them in are in critical care.

Intensive care numbers remain low, but have climbed from six at the end of May to 16 now

Around half of patients in hospital with Covid now have been admitted for other reasons, although the infection can still slow recovery and lead to delays in getting treatment.

Prof Finn said: “People really need to do everything they can to avoid infecting the old and the vulnerable both by trying to reduce the risks of getting infected and of infecting others.

“Wearing a good quality mask in crowded places is an effective way to do this. There is a ray of hope that numbers of cases of BA.5 are now falling in Portugal, where this wave started earlier, so we can begin to hope we may see a similar peak and then fall in the coming weeks here too.”

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Professor Christina Pagel, a healthcare mathematician from University College London, said the biggest priority at this stage of the pandemic should be “cleaner air indoors” - either through ventilation systems or sterilisation.

“We know how to do it, we know it works, but it requires investment”, she said.

Professor Linda Bauld, chair of public health at Edinburgh University, noted that mask wearing has fallen substantially - from around 75% to 20% - since it shifted from a legal requirement in Scotland to guidance.

She said people should think about what they can do to protect themselves and others given that mandatory measures are unlikely to be reimposed.

“Is it really asking so much to wear a mask on the bus?”, said Prof Bauld.

Source: Office for National Statistics Infection Survey

On Thursday, Scotland’s national clinical director Professor Jason Leitch told MSPs on the Covid-19 Recovery Committee that health officials were concerned by the spike in cases but “not panicking”.

He said the Government’s advice remains unchanged, adding: “It’s about staying off if you’re sick, whether that’s college or work or school, certainly reintroducing or thinking about face coverings, handwashing, surfaces - all of those anti-viral things - and, of course, the key intervention remains vaccination.”