"The key thing to say is that flu really is back", said Professor Sir Peter Horby.
The much trickier question is, how much will it matter?
One worst-case scenario created by modellers envisioned that up to half of NHS beds could be occupied this winter by patients with a respiratory infection if Covid and flu rates boomed.
Already, however, there are signs that the current Covid wave has peaked - surprising scientists.
"I would have expected it to keep going up a bit," said Prof Horby, though he added that it is "not impossible" that the UK could see a second winter Covid wave if the currently dominant BA.5 strain is overtaken by BQ.1 - a seemingly more transmissible offshoot currently gaining ground in Europe.
READ MORE: Experts warn that impact of flu on NHS this year 'hard to predict'
There is also evidence that catching flu and Covid simultaneously can make people sicker.
On the other hand, flu vaccinations have been rolled out much earlier than usual this year. Already 76 per cent of over-65s have been jabbed, with most receiving a Covid booster at the same time.
When effective, flu vaccines roughly halve the risk of infection and severe illness. This year's formula has been tweaked to defend against an H3N2 'Bangladesh' strain and a newer H1N1swine flu derivative.
It appears to be a good match - though this can only really be gauged retrospectively.
In 2017, when Australia reported a record 233,453 cases and 745 deaths, the vaccine in use was subsequently deemed to have provided just 16% protection against hospitalisation.
Nonetheless, the case-fatality ratio was "on the low end" compared to the five-year average, according to Australian authorities.
Given that this year's figures - 308 deaths out of 225,332 confirmed cases - point to a case-fatality ratio that is less than half what it was in 2017, shouldn't we be reassured?
READ MORE: NHS preparing for 'significant excess deaths' this winter
Maybe. But not all flu deaths are counted; a more robust indicator is usually excess deaths.
Notably the winter of 2017/18 in Scotland saw the highest winter death toll this century - exceeding even the first winter with Covid.
The biggest problem for us now is that the NHS has no spare capacity left if admissions do surge.
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