This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.

If proof was needed that the gambling industry in this country is out of control and in dire need of regulation, it's that you can still get odds on Rishi Sunak being prime minister after the next general election.

There’s more chance of Scotland winning the Euros next year. In fact, there’s more chance of Scotland winning this year’s rugby world cup, and we were punted out of that three weeks ago. 

I know it’s unwise to try and predict the future. I know it’s really unwise to put that prediction down in print. But I cannot imagine the circumstances in which Labour does not win the next election. 

It's not impossible. 

During the recent UCI cycling world championships in Glasgow, there was a report in an Italian paper about a professional cyclist being forced to quit the contest after a collision in a cycle lane saw him fall into the Clyde. 

It’s not that I doubted the story, it’s just that as an enthusiastic Glasgow-based cyclist, I can’t think of any part of the Clyde-side cycle lane where you can fall into the river without a series of catastrophic events that end with some sort of acrobatic leap.

As I said, it’s not impossible. It’s just pretty much impossible. 

A few years back I interviewed an elder statesman of the Scottish Tories and we got on to talking about 1997. It was like talking to a war vet. In the years since, he’d been in power, held office, but the horror of being on the wrong side of that election had never left. 

It's an experience the Tories are currently reliving through the horror of last week's by-election results in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire where Labour secured swings in the 20s.

According to Professor Sir John Curtice, the way things are looking, Sir Keir Starmer could be on course to beat Tony Blair’s majority of 179.

Will this be Rishi Sunak’s legacy? The man who led his party to a greater defeat than Sir John Major?

Read more:

UnspunHumza Yousaf's conference problems go beyond the council tax

Today marks a year since the Prime Minister entered No 10, having successfully seen off a Boris Johnson comeback in the wake of Liz Truss’s chaotic 45 day reign.

The Tories were 21 points behind Labour in the polls when Sunak took over. They are now 20 points behind. 

It’s progress, I suppose. 

To celebrate the anniversary, he shared a video on X, formerly known as Twitter.

“We've achieved a lot in the year since I became PM,” he said.

Well, actually, he initially said, “We’ve acheived a lot in the year since I became PM,” but then, presumably, someone noticed the spelling mistake and deleted it before re-uploading.

The Herald:
Obviously, you'll never find any typos in my copy so it's okay for me to point this out. 

Among many other wins, the video trumped the UK Government’s support for Ukraine, the Windsor Framework, banning nitrous oxide, £1 billion pounds for towns, delivering 12 free ports, new oil and gas licences, banning XL bullies and stabilising energy bills. 

“Yep, we've been busy,” the video said.

You can argue if those are successes or have been achieved, but the problem for the Tories is that it doesn’t seem to really matter what Sunak says he’s done, or what he’s going to do, voters are just fed up. 

According to the latest Ipsos political monitor, 8 in 10 Britons (80%) are dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country. Just 14% are satisfied.

65% don’t believe that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.

Starmer’s party is seen as having the best policies on key issues like healthcare and the cost of living. That’s despite the public not really knowing what Labour’s policies are. 

Ipsos found that 47% of voters don’t know what Starmer stands for. 

Nevertheless, when asked which leader the public ‘trust the most to deliver the change Britain needs if they win the next General Election’, 40% chose Starmer while 26% picked Sunak. 

If there’s one ray of light for Sunak and his deeply divided, bitter party, it’s that the Tories have narrowed the gap on ‘managing the economy’ since June. 

30% of voters think the Tories have the best policies, compared to 29% who back Labour.

However, despite that, Rachel Reeves is seen as the more capable Chancellor over Jeremy Hunt by a margin of 41% to 29%.

Click here to sign up for Unspun, Scotland's top politics newsletter.

With numbers like those, it’s no surprise that many on his benches have already given up. We don't know when the next general election will be, but it's hard to see how it can be anything other than a miserable day for the Tories. 

Sunak might get another year. He might, if he holds on for as long as he can before going to the country, get another year and three months. 

Currently, he's the UK's 49th longest-serving Prime Minister. If he waits until January 2025, he'll become our 40th. 

That would be some acheivement.