Troon town centre and world famous golf courses including Turnberry could be under water in less than 20 years, according to stark new climate change projections.
Experts say hundreds of homes and businesses along the Ayrshire coast are at risk of being submerged over the next two decades if environmental change continues on its present trajectory.
Climate Central, an independent group that analyses the latest data, has developed an interactive map that paints a worrying picture of the future for Scotland’s seaside towns.
In its ‘average’ projection for 2040, it has illustrated the areas that would be submerged, taking into account average flood levels and expected sea level rises.
The estimates are based on the combined views of a range of experts in the field.
They also look at more optimistic and pessimistic possibilities as well as acknowledging that the situation could get worse as they do not account for the impact of erosion, frequency and intensity of storms, inland flooding and rainfall.
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Areas identified as at risk include; Troon town centre and harbour, Newton, Ayr Port, Greenan Castle, Stair Park and parts of the A77, which runs from Glasgow to the village of Portpatrick on the Irish Sea.
The Cruiser Varyag monument in Girvan and the Citadel leisure centre in Ayr are also singled out as well as Doonfoot, a suburb in the south-west of the town and Girvan town centre.
Turnberry golf course, which is owned by former US president Donald Trump, is also identified as at risk as well as Royal Troon, Prestwick, Turnberry and Girvan’s municipal course.
Stephen Anthony, secretary for Royal Troon, said the historic club had been making “good progress” towards addressing the threat.
He said: “We are well aware of this data and further to the work that was undertaken a number of years ago to protect the coastline we have been monitoring changes every couple of years.
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“We are now at the stage of having discussions with the relevant bodies and agreeing a plan to further protect the golf course in the years to come.”
Climate Central’s report projection shows how much worse the impact will be should there be a combination of sea levels rises, moderate flooding, unchecked pollution and some bad luck.
At the other end of spectrum, there is significantly less to worry about.
However, this version doesn’t take flooding into account, assumes that the maximum action has been taken by governments on pollution control, and adds in some good luck.
A spokesperson for South Ayrshire Council said: “We continue to work hard to reduce emissions and adapt to our changing climate, including rising sea levels.
“Our Sustainable Development and Climate Change Strategy focuses on these issues and involves services from across the council.
“We are working to ensure we have the correct infrastructure in place, so that our roads, bridges, housing and other buildings can cope with changing weather patterns.”
It comes after a report warned that 45,200 homes, businesses and services are considered at risk of flooding in Glasgow due to climate change and this could increase to 57,000 by 2080.
Scotland’s largest city is one of six from around the world being profiled by the World Health Organisation for their plans on mitigating the risks.
The document estimates that the River Clyde poses a significant flooding risk to 32% of the total city area, as current sea levels are expected to rise by approximately 50cm by 2080.
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It also warns of the health implications for the city saying temperature rises will exacerbates existing illnesses, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and ischemic heart disease, which are among the top five illnesses causing premature death in Glasgow
The report highlights the actions that have been taken including the city’s Low Emission Zone, that came into force at the end of May and drainage projects to manage and minimise risk of flooding.
It also hails the adoption of nature-based solutions and tree planting projects in Glasgow and the wider city region to mitigate the impacts of carbon emissions in the atmosphere and provide shade, while offering areas for people to enjoy and contribute to their health and well-being.
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