RESEARCHERS from the British Election Study and the University of Manchester this week released an interesting report on how the Scottish independence referendum affected voting patterns.
Its findings, they believe, suggest that just as 2014's vote had disastrous consequences for Labour north of the border, so the upcoming EU poll vote could as they put it with "spell trouble" for the Conservatives.
The research points to the perils for all parties of holding a referendum.
The interesting question is why.
The simple answer, the academics argue, is that they force voters to think outside of party allegiances.
The Conservatives would be the biggest losers if there was an backlash to the result of the EU vote, the researchers estimate - with UKIP most likely be the biggest beneficiaries.
The academics found that after the vote in September 2014, 70 per cent percent of Yes voters said that they intended to vote SNP and just 10 per cent that they would back Labour.
Those numbers may on the face of it seem unsurprising.
But, just a few months earlier, in February and March of 2014, 20 per cent of Yes voters had said that they would vote Labour.
And only just over half said that they would vote SNP.
Dr Chris Prosser, one of the academics involved, said that after the referendum ‘Yes’ voters “simply could not reconcile” the position they had taken in the referendum with a vote for Labour.
His colleague Professor Ed Fieldhouse said that although the research was specifically about the impact of the independence referendum it's findings demonstrated "the danger of a potentially realigning event to an established party”.
However, both caution that there are some large differences between the Scottish and EU votes.
These include that the issue at stake – the UK's relationship with Europe - is not as important to as many voters as independence.
Another key difference is the levels of division within political parties.
While few politicians broke party ranks over independence, leading Conservatives like Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have come out for Leave.
The fact that the Tories are split on the issue could help them, the academic argue.
The Conservatives “may not be so tainted in the eyes of Eurosceptics as Labour were by opposing Scottish independence” they say.
Professor Fieldhouse warns, however, that these differences do not mean "that Ukip or other smaller parties may not stand to benefit if Eurosceptic voters become disillusioned with the parties that predominantly campaign to remain."
With almost two months of the campaign left to run he also argues that the "more acrimonious the campaign, and the more voters get involved, the stronger this effect might be”.
The problem for the Tories could be that a referendum designed to kill off Ukip might just give them their biggest boost.
The findings also raise questions for Scottish parties, where there is much more of a pro-EU consensus than south of the Border.
Polls show while the vast majority of Scots want to stay in the EU, a significant, and possibly growing, minority want to leave.
Could the EU referendum trigger another, albeit much smaller, earthquake in Scottish politics?
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