IT IS perhaps counter intuitive that Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon should be viewed by the public as the party leaders most likely to secure the outcome they seek in negotiations with Brussels post the Brexit vote. After all, they have divergent aims. The Prime Minister wants to win the best deal she can on relations with the European Union after Britain's withdrawal. The First Minister's goal is to keep Scotland in the EU.
According to a UK-wide BMG survey for The Herald, it is both leaders' perceived competence and negotiating skills that put them in the driving seat to further their causes in regard to the EU. Mrs May, in the early flush of a premier's honeymoon period, is largely untested, although she showed her leadership mettle with the pace, ruthlessness and extent of her ministerial reshuffle. Ms Sturgeon's stock remains high, albeit there was no surprise in the findings that people who voted to leave the EU viewed her in a lesser light or that Scots believe she would be a tougher negotiator than the Prime Minister.
While the poll makes pleasant reading for both women, Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron will find little in it from which to take comfort. Both the Labour and Liberal Democrat party leaders were viewed overall as incompetent by voters. On the vital question of leadership, Mrs May scored as highly among Labour supporters as Mr Corbyn, whose reputation for dithering and a lack of clarity has been highlighted by a failure convincingly to set out his position on committing Britain (or not) to providing military support to a Nato ally should one be invaded by Russia. His contention that he can reach out beyond his core supporters and tempt some Tory voters to back Labour seems outlandishly Micawberish in light of the poll showing he cannot even convince those sympathetic to his party that he has the necessary leadership qualities. Those who voted |Labour in the General Election said they rated Mrs May more highly than Mr Corbyn.
Mr Farron has been LibDem leader for more than a year yet more voters saw him as incompetent than competent. More worryingly, many did not know who he was. The focus was on the Tories and Labour earlier in the summer leadership battles old and new were fought. While Mr Farron would not welcome the continued attention on Labour and its leadership woes, he should be expected to make a bigger impact.
Of course, this is only one poll and care must be taken not to read too much into the findings, although they are largely of a piece with other tests of public opinion. The leadership qualities of Mrs May and Ms Sturgeon will be in the spotlight as the Brexit talks, and the stresses and strains they bring on both women, intensify. The Prime Minister has somehow to negotiate a settlement that is good for the British economy while keeping on board her Brexit ministers and those EU countries pushing for a punitive deal as a warning to their Eurosceptic voters pushing for a referendum. For the First Minister, the challenge will be deciding if or when a second independence referendum will be held, no easy task as former foreign secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind reminds us in today's Herald.
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