IN an age when the only predictable thing about politics is its sheer unpredictability, she was held up as the exception. A former reality show host could become president of the United States, the UK could vote for Brexit, North Korea could send ballistic missiles flying over Japan, but Angela Merkel, “Mutti”, stood firm.

The German Chancellor’s constancy is one reason why the pictures this week of her looking careworn and preoccupied have been so troubling. We have grown accustomed to other political leaders, particularly British prime ministers, looking as if they are getting by on just a few hours’ sleep each night, an air of crisis hanging over them like rainclouds.

Not Mrs Merkel, who appeared to be the ultimate getting on with the day job leader. Yet after 12 years in power she, too, has joined the ranks of the politically forlorn. She has spent the months since winning a fourth term in September trying to form a coalition government, only for the talks to collapse this week.

The CDU leader’s options now are to try again, attempt to lead a minority government, or back new elections. She appears to be leaning towards the latter, much to the dismay of the country’s President, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. “We are now facing a situation that has never happened before in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany,” said the President, his sombre bearing reflecting the wider mood. Urging the parties to try again for the sake of the common good, he added: “The mission to form a government remains. You cannot just hand back responsibility to the electorate.”

Despite the pictures and headlines, Germany is not in crisis. Europe’s strongest and most successful economy continues to power ahead. The old administration continues in place till a new one can be formed, as does Mrs Merkel as Chancellor. If ever a political leader wanted to resurrect the “Crisis, what crisis?” line, it could be her.

Yet for all that, a sense of unease remains, one that has everything to do with the Europe of today, where it is heading and how well equipped its politicians are to handle the big questions before them. Just as a sneeze in the US can still cause a cold in the rest of the world, so what happens in Germany has implications far beyond the country’s borders.

The causes of the current impasse are many and varied, from the personalities involved to the way the German electoral system is calibrated. One factor that cannot be ignored, however, is the profound shock to the system caused by the electoral success of the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which now has 94 seats in the Bundestag.

AfD emerged in 2013 on the back of hostility towards German-led EU bailouts for Greece. It might in time have withered on the vine. Instead, the party seized on Mrs Merkel’s 2015 decision to welcome hundreds of thousands of refugees and migrants into Germany and has been exploiting it ever since. It is worth recalling that decision of not so long ago, because it said so much about Mrs Merkel. After months of warnings about a looming refugee crisis caused in the main by war in Syria, the boats began leaving shores. Women, children, men taking to rickety, overcrowded vessels, most putting themselves at the mercy of people smuggler. Lives were being lost daily, the toll mounting.

The cry of “something must be done” went up and, as so often, nothing was. There was shock and sympathy. The loosening of a quota here and there and meetings, lots of meetings. While others were content to hang back, hoping the crisis would sort itself out or a bored media would move on, Mrs Merkel came forward with the kind of bold idea that was a match to the task. Announcing her intention to open Germany’s doors to refugees, she reassured her country, “We can do this”.

More than a million refugees took up her offer. The decision to act was not wholly altruistic. An ageing Germany, like other western European countries, needed new young citizens and workers. But it remains the case that Mrs Merkel saw duty and opportunity where other leaders saw only burden and risk.

Looking at what has happened since, those same leaders might say they were right about that risk. Mrs Merkel has since rowed back on those early promises. The number of asylum applications has dropped from a high of 746,000 in 2016 to 111,000 in the first half of this year. At the same time, support for the anti-immigration Afd has continued to grow, with a party that was polling at under 5 per cent in 2015 taking almost 13 per cent of the vote in September. From nowhere the AfD has become the third largest party in parliament.

As punishments for good deeds go, the one meted out to Mrs Merkel has been swift and depressing. European leaders will look at what has happened to her fortunes, contrast this with Donald Trump’s reward for his build a wall mentality, and draw their own conclusions accordingly. It is not an encouraging picture.

Mrs Merkel’s standing may be diminished but it has to be hoped she is not done yet. In her determinedly calm, business-like, no fuss way, the German Chancellor gives politicians a good name. Even at her most magpie-like, picking and choosing and taking credit for the ideas of her coalition partners, she comes across as acting first and foremost for the betterment of others rather than for the aggrandisement of herself. It has been the same on the EU and global stage. Imagine the years since the financial crash without that steady hand on the tiller.

If Germany opts for fresh elections it could be months before they take place. Watching events from here, some Brexiters have been quick with the schadenfreude, seeing Mrs Merkel’s woes as an opportunity to exploit. As ever there is a failure here to see the bigger picture. The last thing the Brexit process needs is more chaos and uncertainty. Mrs Merkel may be down in the mouth at the moment and down in the polls, but she still stands head and shoulders above most politicians in taking the long view of matters. The world could do with more of that at the moment, not less.