By Gareth Brown, Former political advisor in Stormont

THE Union is under threat from Brexit. “What’s new?” I hear you say. Well, the greater threat is now posed, quite unintentionally, by Leo Varadkar rather than Nicola Sturgeon.

While Scottish Unionists continue to shout “Give it a rest, Nicola”, and English Unionists compare the Irish border with smart ticketing in London, even a modicum of genuine interest in that other part of the United Kingdom would tell them that the sands are shifting.

Since the partition of Ireland in 1921, Irish nationalists have sought reunification through a referendum. Not only is that referendum now almost inevitable but, for the first time, it’s winnable.

Two recent polls demonstrating support at 42 per cent and 44 per cent have put Irish unity at least on a par with support for Scottish independence, with the appetite for a vote in Northern Ireland (NI) at 51 per cent compared to 38 per cent in Scotland. Notably, a poll conducted last month suggested that 28 per cent of people had changed their minds as a result of Brexit, and now support Irish unity. Just let that sink in.

The UK Government, and Unionism generally, finds itself in this position for two principal reasons.

The first concerns the vulnerability of Unionism in NI. Unlike Scotland, where Unionists have at least attempted to define a positive case for a family of nations working together, Ulster Unionism is defined against Irish republicanism – that is, the Union is great, because a United Ireland would be a disaster.

This becomes problematic when the prospect of Irish unity doesn’t actually seem that bad any more. Ireland, as the fastest growing economy in the EU with the most popular leader in almost two decades, is widely perceived as a modern, progressive nation on the up (and also in the EU).

The second concerns the Government’s approach to legitimate concerns about the border, which is being perceived as a proxy to its wider approach to the Union. This was summed up nicely by a young person who questioned the Prime Minister on her visit to Belfast last week, asking: “How can you say you’re working for us all when you’re in bed with the DUP?” The answer, of course, was underwhelming.

It would be naive to suggest, as with Scotland, that NI is this massively Europhile nation – it’s not. But the EU played an important role in brokering peace in NI, and the invisible border is an important psychological bedrock of that peace – it’s not just about trade.

Most people in NI can probably stomach the referendum result. It’s the manner in which we leave that is the bone of contention. The majority would be broadly content as long as the status quo is maintained as far as the border is concerned – a scenario looking increasingly unlikely.

However, the “union of equals” rhetoric doesn’t match the actions, and people are noticing. While talking up the Union, the Government has reneged on its December commitment on a backstop in spectacularly incoherent fashion, outright rejected sensible proposals at the behest of Brexit purists, and handled the negotiation with the Scottish Government like some last-minute bartering in a game of Monopoly.

When the time comes, and it will, when people in NI have to make a decision about their future, they will look to Dublin and they will look to London. The judgment will be on where their interests best lie and who cares most about them. On current trajectory, I’m not sure the safe money is on the Union.

Unionism has some soul-searching to do, and a good first step would be to turn its head west.