INSIDE THE STORY

As Tory delegates gather for their party conference in Birmingham, Scottish activists believe there has never been a better time to be a Conservative north of the border.

Ruth Davidson, their celebrity figurehead, is the country’s most popular political leader and has Nicola Sturgeon’s job on her radar.

Her allies are seriously talking up the prospect of Ms Davidson becoming First Minister in 2021 and leading the first Scottish Tory government in the devolution era.

Such a prospect would have been unthinkable even four years ago. Starting in 1997, when the party was wiped out at Westminster, the Scottish Tories ran up a series of woeful election results that made them a laughing stock.

Alex Salmond used to joke that there were more pandas in Scotland than Tory MPs, but last year’s general election increased their tally from one to 13. The former First Minister has had to get a new punch line.

Ms Davidson’s political gifts can partly explain the rise of the Scottish Tories, but of more importance is a crude political factor: the emergency of independence as this era’s defining issue.

If it had not been for the 2014 referendum, which showcased Ms Davidson’s talents, her party would be nowhere. Just as 45% of the population are sympathetic to the SNP’s overarching priority, so too has Ms Davidson put herself at the front of the pro-Union majority. Her continued success is dependent on a second indyref being a live possibility.

But constitutional politics, as the leader’s allies will concede, will not put her into Bute House. Her unionism is a vote winner, but her conservatism is still a turn off for many voters, which explains the domestic policy review under the tutelage of moderate Tory MSP Donald Cameron. She knows she needs to fully detoxify her party’s brand.

However, even if she produces a sparkling manifesto which captures the imagination of Scots, the arithmetic at Holyrood makes it highly unlikely she will ever become First Minister.

Her party’s strategy is clear. As was the case in 2007, when the SNP beat Labour by one seat, the Conservatives believe they can narrowly become the largest party in three years by returning around 50 MSPs. Political momentum, they calculate, would result in MSPs installing Ms Davidson as First Minister.

The reality will hit the Tories hard. If there was a chance of Ms Davidson becoming First Minister, the Greens would back Ms Sturgeon. The total number of Tory MSPs would have to exceed the combined tally of the Greens and the SNP, which no opinion poll comes close to predicting.

Ms Davidson would need the support of another party, but no credible option presents itself. Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard is a left-winger who has a visceral dislike of the Conservatives. The chances of his party putting Ms Davidson into power, or aiding that outcome by abstaining in the vote, are zero.

How about the Liberal Democrats? Willie Rennie and his colleagues are known for their distaste for the SNP and, in theory, might welcome the idea of ending Ms Sturgeon’s political career. But the Lib Dems were hammered politically for their coalition with the Tories at Westminster and have never recovered. Mr Rennie will not want to be known as the man who handed power to the Tories at Holyrood.

These roadblocks represent a structural impediment for the Tories. Around 37% of voters in Scotland who participated in the Brexit referendum backed Leave, but barely 10% of MSPs hold this view. A large proportion of Scots are unenthusiastic about immigration, but such opinions are rarely articulated in the chamber. Holyrood is firmly on the centre-left, even if the country is more nuanced.

A walk up the Royal Mile to the city chambers would give Ms Davidson a foretaste of what is likely to happen in 2021. At last year’s local government election in Edinburgh, her party won the most votes but were shut out of power by an SNP and Labour coalition. Anti-Tory habits die hard.

A more likely scenario is Ms Davidson depriving the SNP and Greens of their pro-independence majority, but failing to remove Ms Sturgeon from power. She might then be persuaded to change her mind about moving to Westminster.