By Andy Maciver, political lobbyist and Director at Message Matters

SCOTLAND’S Budget process, since 2016, has been a rather humdrum process. We commence with the presumption that the SNP and the Greens will do a deal; during the process we are encouraged to believe there is a risk they may not but, in the end, they sign on the dotted line and we all move on.

This year has started the same way. But its conclusion may be different.

If Green co-convener Patrick Harvie sticks to his guns, a failure by Finance Secretary Derek Mackay to take steps towards the abolition of council tax will result in him needing another dance partner. This is arguably the first time that the irresistible force of Mr Harvie’s demands could meet the immovable object of Mr Mackay’s electoral reality.

Council tax is, for sure, imperfect (far better for local authorities to have substantially increased powers enabling them to collect a locally-suitable range of income, property and sales taxes), but a Green-fuelled reform risks calamitous electoral consequences for the SNP in seats in the wealthier parts of Edinburgh, Perthshire, Aberdeenshire et al, which it has worked so hard to claim.

Similar logic applies to the growth prospects of the independence movement. “The 45” is still 45, give or take the margin of error, and to become “the 50+” it needs to attract precisely the sort of people who would lose out financially under the Greens’ vision of local taxation.

What if Mr Mackay decides that annual reliance on the Greens no longer makes strategic sense?

Enter stage centre, Willie Rennie. A good man and a good politician he is, but in truth last year’s Budget was not Mr Rennie’s finest hour. Three of his five MSPs opposed the Budget, with his Orkney and Shetland colleagues effectively being forced to support it after being offered extra funding for ferries by Mr Mackay.

This needn’t have been so messy. I understand the world where Unionists think that if they give an inch to the Nationalists then the walls will come tumbling down. However, this is bunker mentality, as well as lacking evidential veracity. Most people do not think this way, and of all the Unionist electorate, those who vote for the Liberal Democrats are probably least inclined toward such tribalism.

Conversely, the LibDems have far more to gain than they have to lose. Out here in the real world, there is space for a post-constitutional party. A party whose priorities are matched to the priorities of real people – transport, housing, childcare, not the constitution. We don’t have one of those at the moment.

Mr Rennie should think back to last year. What could he have achieved if he had been prepared to back the budget? All the money that was offered to Mr Harvie, and I’d bet a bit more. Imagine if it had gone to mental health, allowing Mr Rennie to shape outcomes on an issue he has championed for years. Would this have led to a collapse in support for the LibDems? Of course not.

This country is ready for something better. Our tribal politics may not be able to cope with nuance, but the people probably can. The electorate can understand that a party which voted one way in a referendum four years ago can work with a party which voted the other way in order to achieve something which they both agree will benefit society. They can cope with a LibDem party which uses its kingmaker card to actually get something done.

The LibDems should embrace their disproportionate strength. You never know – people might like it. Willie Rennie and Derek Mackay need to spend more time together.