Nicola Sturgeon’s statement on Brexit and independence was both a tactical coup and a strategic dud.
If provides impatient party activists and Yes campaigners with plenty to ponder.
There will be a Holyrood bill for another referendum, a fresh request to the UK government for extra powers, and a Citizens’ Assembly on the future of Scotland.
Ms Sturgeon said she wanted a fresh vote in this parliament to escape Brexit.
It gets her through this weekend’s SNP conference, and buys off the Greens, who have recently been acting as pesky insurgents to the SNP establishment.
The new bill is also a political necessity.
Legislative, campaign and electoral considerations mean the FM has to crank up the machinery for a vote this summer, or it will be too late to hold it before the Holyrood election in May 2021.
However, the legislation is essentially symbolic unless the UK Government decides to give it teeth, and Theresa May has already ruled that out.
As Ms Sturgeon conceded, the bill cannot actually deliver a legally watertight referendum unless Westminster transfers extra powers under Section 30 of the Scotland Act.
Before the 2014 referendum, Westminster passed a Section 30 order, then Holyrood passed the legislation. This time, Ms Sturgeon is trying to do it the other way around.
She is putting the legislation in place first, and will then ask for a Section 30 order.
But it is an order that will never come, and she knows it.
Her “bill to nowhere” is a public relations device.
She wants London’s opposition to it to be an advert for independence, a symbol of how Westminster is again prepared to ignore the will of Holyrood. But it could equally become a memorial to her own impotence and failure to win an SNP majority in 2016.
There is another risk.
The SNP faces a test of national opinion in one month, with the European elections.
You could hear the opposition polishing their slogans as they responded to Ms Sturgeon’s statement.
“Enough is enough,” said the Tories. “Make it stop,” said the LibDems.
They will repeating that all the way to May 23.
Ms Sturgeon has two MEPs, and wants a third. If she fails to get one, her critics will blame her push for independence, and her short-term fix may not look so good after all.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel