Key steps to take on the long, painful road to independence

However, there’s also a growing sense among some independence supporters that a successful second Yes vote is inevitable, that history is on the side of independence. Independence is far from inevitable, and the path to winning it will be a long and painful one.

First, we must go through the crucible of Brexit before independence. Without Brexit, the independence movement will be easily branded a campaign for chaos. If Brexit is averted – and that’s a big, lonely “if” – then the narrative against which any second independence referendum plays out will be one of Yes supporters heaping division on division. That’s not the backdrop against which to fight a campaign of hope and change.

READ MORE: Why it’s time for an advisory referendum on independence

Put simply, while the idea of Boris Johnson in Number 10 is appalling, it’s not suitable grounds for a second ballot. A lying buffoon doesn’t equal significant material change in Scotland’s circumstances.

Even if Brexit happens, and opens the door to a fair and rightful claim to hold a second Scottish referendum, the path to independence will remain fraught. The second hurdle will be the crucial matter of securing the legal right to stage a vote. The FM has promised to hold another independence referendum before the end of the current Scottish Parliament term in May 2021. Can you imagine what PM Johnson would say if asked to consent to a fresh referendum by granting a Section 30 order under the Scotland Act – a move needed to legally authorise a second ballot?

After Nicola Sturgeon’s Government introduced draft legislation for a second independence referendum in the wake of the European elections, Home Secretary Sajid Javid arrogantly claimed: “If I become PM, I won’t allow a second independence referendum.” James Cleverly said he’d “stop the break up of the Union”. Jo Swinson – darling of Remainers – attacked Ms Sturgeon for “her independence obsession”. Her LibDem colleague Willie Rennie says Ms Sturgeon is “desperate for the UK to fail”.

What this shows is how the wind will blow in any future independence campaign – especially without Brexit. The Yes movement, and the SNP in particular, will be painted as wreckers. The idea of a Prime Minister preventing Scots voting on independence is indeed an affront to democracy, but within a UK which has just dodged the bullet of Brexit such an action could be presented as one which is meant to unify and prevent further division.

This brings us straight to the third point, and the very heart of the matter – which is the storyline, the presentation of events, the narrative that voters need to hear if Yes is to succeed.

READ MORE: Neil Mackay: Five key issues the Yes movement must address if it wants to win well

We know that Brexit is the most important factor in deciding how people will vote in any second independence referendum, from research by the think tank Progress Scotland. SNP activists out on the doorsteps canvassing are seeing two things: one, a shift towards Yes; and two, a concomitant concern that a Yes vote might add chaos on top of chaos. In nearly every home across these islands, voters are fearful for the future – they are sick of division and hate, they are tired of politics conducted like warfare, and most importantly they are understandably scared of more constitutional chaos.

If a Yes vote is to succeed the narrative of independence must be that of unity. The storyline must be that a vote for Scottish independence will lead to a united nation, not a divided one. And that’s one hell of a political trick to pull off – but it is do-able.

Part of the answer is to not denigrate the Union as the case for a second referendum grows. Supporting the Union is a perfectly respectable and decent political position. The storyline needs to be that it is Westminster which has failed the Union, and in turn Scotland – it is not the Union itself which is wrong. If the Union represents cohesion and community for Unionist voters, then the counter argument needs to be that Westminster has killed those notions, and it’s Europe which now offers Scotland collective strength.

Nor can Scotland be seen as cutting and running. If Brexit happens, the narrative of independence needs to be one of uniting Scotland in the face of threat, not jumping into the escape pods while the going is good.

The fourth point is that honesty is always the best policy. People listen to an honest story-teller. The independence movement needs to be frank with voters when it comes to the big black holes in our knowledge about what happens after a Yes vote. For example, the prospect of intelligent negotiations leading to the amicable separation of Scotland from the rest of the UK, with someone like Mr Johnson in power, is a non-starter. Borders, currency, divorce bills – these too are all unknowns.

A jingoistic post-EU Westminster administration – imagine the Brexit Party in coalition – could make an independent Scotland’s life hellish. So be it. Acknowledge that a lot of the transition to independence will be no honeymoon, and avoid any temptation to engage in an antagonistic sniping campaign with opponents. Anger isn’t attractive, nor does it reflect optimism. Unity and stability within Europe for Scotland – that’s the key message for change.

There’s been some misty-eyed nostalgia from Yes voters for Ireland of late as well, which does no-one any good. “If Ireland can do it, so can we,” seems to be the thinking. The lessons of history ask for caution. Irish independence was forged by the gun, the nation was impoverished throughout much of the 20th century in the wake of separation from the UK, and the island remains divided today.

Scotland needs to walk towards independence its own way – spurning division, debating honestly, and with unity and cohesion at the centre of politics. Independence without those values would be no better than the chaos and division we have today.

Neil Mackay is Scotland’s Columnist of the Year.