Bob Scott is a humanist celebrant

THIS story does not have a happy ending.

It does, however, contain a warning, one which has previously been ignored, continues to be distorted and in the future will probably be perverted. It concerns the global climate emergency.

Articles on this appear every day in the world’s media. A typical feature starts with a presentation of the changes taking place in the Earth’s weather patterns, perhaps brings in the true-life tale of a Pacific islander at risk of losing her home to the sea, then has a dig at China as the largest source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, before making dire predictions of what lies ahead, along with a claim that salvation is there for the taking, if only governments would take heed and act before it is too late. The underlying message is that things are bad…but there is hope. That formula is misleading. It is a deception. The damage has already been done.

It tempts the reader to quietly go away believing that things will turn out fine, just as they have throughout history when mankind was facing tricky odds. For example, biblical plagues of locusts and frogs came and then went; smallpox might well have wiped us out, but didn’t; and while Covid-19 did deliver a bit of a jolt, once again science came good, just in the nick of time. So, yes, it is a worry, but there is hope.

Wrong, we are already trapped.

The evidence that we are living in a period of unprecedented change in the weather is undeniable. The 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report states, “The scientific evidence is unequivocal; climate change is a threat to human-wellbeing and the health of the planet.”

With a global average warming now at 1.2C, compared to the late 19th century, several catastrophic and irreversible changes are already underway. Not in the distant future, but right now. Tipping point thresholds for the Arctic, the Greenland icecap, West Antarctica and land sinks, most notably Amazonia, have been reached. Between 2010 and 2019 Brazil’s Amazon forest released more CO2 than it absorbed.

Let me repeat, that is not a prediction, it has already happened.

The latest COP meeting concluded with an agreement which barely mentions fossil fuels. This would be farcical, were it not tragic. Within the lifetime of our children, rising sea levels will force millions, perhaps billions, of people to migrate. If they do not they will either starve or drown. Compared to what now lies ahead, concerns over several thousand unauthorised migrants crossing the English Channel will pale into insignificance. Things are not going to get any better. It is already too late.

“I tell you naught for your comfort,
Yea, naught for your desire,
Save that the sky grows darker yet
And the sea rises higher”
G.K. Chesterton
The Ballad of the White Horse