WELL, at least one matter has been resolved in Scotland, a nation normally pickled in constitutional aspic where hopes of going forward are as misplaced as hopes of going back, and resolution of just about any issue has become a mathematical improbability.

This we now know: the Yes movement is irredeemably split and will never unite. The evidence came in response to an interview the Herald on Sunday carried, in which I spoke to Amanda Burgauer, head of the pro-independence think-tank Common Weal. She called for the Yes movement to put differences aside and come together.

Ms Burgauer was firmly rebuffed by what it would be fair to term the Yes movement’s progressive wing – and for two reasons. First, the progressive wing would rather eat a dead dog than have anything to do with Alex Salmond and his weird and toxic Alba group, seen as a magnet for what’s dubbed the "anti-trans" lobby within the Yes movement, and cybernats.

Secondly, Common Weal itself – whether it likes it or not, and whether it’s the case or not – is now seen by some in the progressive wing as aligned with, or at least overly sympathetic to, this Salmond faction. So the messenger eclipsed the message.

Full disclosure: as a moderate independence supporter, if I’m inclined in any way, it’s to this progressive wing. So I understand where those who rebuffed Ms Burgauer are coming from. However, I also see Burgauer as a genuine, decent, intelligent woman worth listening to. But such is the factionalism, it no longer seems possible to bridge divisions. There’s also much sense, from a left-wing perspective, in many of Common Weal’s big ideas for the future of Scotland. Again, in a divided movement, these won’t get a hearing from a large swathe of the progressive wing.

While that’s unfortunate, it must be accepted that many who see themselves as progressive feel they’d compromise strongly-held beliefs if they engaged with Common Weal. That too must be respected. It’s not impossible to hold two thoughts at once: Common Weal has much of merit to say, and, also, some feel deeply uncomfortable about Common Weal.

So here we are: both a movement split, and the SNP looking quite disunited itself. Ian Blackford’s departure speaks to the deep schisms in the party stretching from top to bottom. Just recall how the MP Joanna Cherry greeted Mr Blackford’s going: “I am pleased to hear this.” Hardly collegiate.

To these woes add the recent Supreme Court ruling, which inevitably scuppered any belief (in fact, who ever believed it?) that the Scottish Government could legislate for another referendum. The SNP is probably lucky the court ruled against it. Activists are currently warning that they cannot answer key questions around currency on the doorstep. What hope of winning Indyref2, if the basic building blocks aren’t even in place?

As a final garnish throw in the utter folly of Nicola Sturgeon’s plan to turn the next General Election into a de facto referendum: a scheme destined to fail badly. If the "de facto" plan implodes, independence is kaput. To lose once is bad, to lose twice means the game really is up for a generation. It would also end Ms Sturgeon’s political career. Though, she, unlike the Yes movement, can find new life in a new job anywhere in the world once she leaves office.

Into this mess walks a newly confident Labour Party. Gordon Brown yesterday presented his plans for reform of the UK, which the party hopes will provide an alternative to both the status quo and independence. Central to the proposals is the scrapping of the House of Lords, and its replacement with an Assembly of the Regions and Nations which would have “enhanced Scottish representation”, and a “constitutional role to protect” devolution. Yet there’s already talk of Labour delaying Lords reform, which puts a question mark over all the proposals. Promises in opposition are rather different to policy in office.

There are plans for more powers devolved to Scotland – like entering into international agreements; specific Scottish representation on UK national bodies like the Bank of England, and more government agencies moving to Scotland from London. Greater Scottish fiscal autonomy is promised, with increased borrowing powers, and a new Council of the United Kingdom.

In all honesty, it feels rather underwhelming. Real federalism it’s not. But then real federalism means balkanising England into lumps like Yorkshire and Cornwall to address the size disparity of any federation of four countries in which a large England would dominate smaller Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Nobody could sell balkanisation to England's electorate.

Mr Brown’s plans feel like an act of political prestidigitation. The carnival barker has shouted outside the tent that great acts of federalism will be performed within, only for the audience to find a cheap magician pulling a familiar and forlorn rabbit from a hat. All Yes voters – progressive or otherwise – will rightly chorus: “Remember ‘the Vow’.”

The maggot in Labour’s offering is that the party has fully embraced Brexit. So Sir Keir Starmer’s promises about a new vision for Britain are meaningless to those who want a return to Europe.

Clearly, Labour cares only about winning power. Why shouldn’t it? Yet, it must improve its fortunes in Scotland to get that power. So the bottom line is: can Sir Keir pull enough of Scotland’s undecided centrist voters his way, to achieve two aims: winning Westminster, and keeping the SNP under 50 per cent at the next election, killing Sturgeon’s "de facto" plan?

Currently, it seems the tactics – helped by disgust at the Tories – are succeeding. Labour steadily rises in Scottish polls, and is now standing at 31%. The SNP has fallen to 41%. Still a great gulf, but the change matters.

In politics, storyline is all. Can a divided Yes movement, led by a stagnating SNP Government, still weave a story that enough people want to hear? Or can resurgent Labour’s narrative steal some of the SNP’s audience? Labour won’t "win" Scotland overall. It doesn’t need to. It just needs to prune the SNP’s vote share. And Labour does have a new tale to tell – albeit one promising more than it delivers. That alone should terrorise the SNP, a party that’s lost its storyline to entropy.


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