Gender law is the most significant step towards indy since 2014

The conflict between the UK and Scottish governments over Holyrood’s gender legislation is an acid bath for Scotland. It reveals so much, so unpleasantly. Yet perhaps it’s also the moment of clarity the nation has needed for years; and not just the nation: the SNP, the Yes movement, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Tories, undecided voters, Scotland’s media. All of us.

For many undecideds – that great swathe of rational folk, in hock to neither the cults of nationalism nor unionism – this just isn’t how democracy is done. English politicians telling Scotland what laws Holyrood can or cannot pass goes too far. There’s a whiff of colonialism. Ordinary Scots not caught up in Culture War absurdity or the solipsism of Holyrood’s media-political biosphere are thinking like this: "I don’t really care what the law is, but we made it here in Scotland; if it’s problematic then it’s for us to fix, not Westminster."

Neil Mackay: How can the SNP win indy if it doesn't even know what it means?

For many, this begins a slide towards independence. Country, to most people, matters. There’s plenty of folk who so far haven’t given a damn about Indyref2, but care about their nation’s status. Westminster will clearly be seen by them as a bully trying to humiliate Scotland. Conservatives therefore effectively bang the final nail into the Union’s coffin.

The Yes movement itself is being dipped in acid. There’s a significant minority of Yes voters now saying they’re happy for a Tory government to overturn a Scottish law because they don’t like what that law does. Their opponents in the Yes movement say this group simply doesn’t understand what independence means.

Independence means a nation taking its own decisions, whether good or bad. There’s no world in which any future independent Scotland would make everyone happy. A newly independent Scotland could theoretically vote in a right-wing government causing outrage among the left. Is that a reason to ditch independence? Clearly not, if you believe in self-determination.

If Scotland chooses independence, we cannot go running to London to overturn laws we don’t like … because London won’t be there. If Scotland became independent tomorrow, the most likely government would be the SNP. And it would pass this gender law.

Those in the Yes movement calling for London to act are now branded traitors and hypocrites, by people they once campaigned with; they’re compared to children who claim to want to cut the apron strings but when it comes to it are too scared to leave mummy and daddy. They’re seen as the Tories’ useful idiots, sticking the knife into devolution.

Neil Mackay: It’s not the Supreme Court holding back independence, it’s the SNP

In an independent Scotland, the same process would have been followed on gender legislation: big public debates, media furore, protest, counter-protest, bills proposed, evidence taken, parliamentary rows, and finally the law would have passed.

It’s confusing for many in the Yes movement to see people who once denounced the Tories as monsters, now backing Conservative attacks on Scottish devolution. They scratch their heads, wondering how a party which has – in the eyes of the Yes movement – been wrong on everything, suddenly became the arbiter of sense and wisdom.

Why, they ask, are some fellow travellers now cosying up to the party that’s waging war on refugees, the poor, trade unions and the right to protest? Those who are kind feel Yes voters siding with Conservatives have simply been radicalised by online culture wars; those who aren’t so kind, feel that prejudice tops any desire for independence.

Many centrists in the Yes movement therefore feel these events will purge a group they consider bigoted, or certainly unhelpful from a public relations perspective, while simultaneously winning over offended undecideds. Whether that happens is clearly another matter.

Alister Jack’s Section 35 order may well begin a slide towards independence for many (Image: PA)

For Labour it’s a moment of crisis too. Splits are emerging. Most Scottish Labour MSPs backed the law. But Sir Keir Starmer undercut them, saying he’s got “concerns” over 16-year-olds changing gender. Labour MSP Monica Lennon – firmly on the party’s progressive wing – said she was “very disappointed” in Sir Keir. She also labelled the Scottish Labour MP Ian Murray “disingenuous” over his comments calling for “cooperation” between London and Edinburgh. Where does Labour go from here? Will the progressive left peel away from the party if it submits to Westminster?

The media must also study its soul. My profession failed to report this matter in a mature, dignified way. Newspapers and broadcasters prioritised outrage clicks over clear, balanced reporting. This isn’t how human rights should be handled in the 21st century. Journalism effectively created this turmoil.

Neil Mackay: What does independence stand for today?

As for Scottish Tories, to many the mask has well and truly slipped, revealing an old-fashioned colonial face. They are seen as lacking any respect for Holyrood or devolution. That disrespect is itself the Yes movement’s greatest recruiting sergeant. To many it seems the Tories are happy to kill the Union as a last roll of the dice to cleave to power; to sacrifice Scotland to its own hardline fringe.

Constitutionally, this is a huge opportunity for the SNP to exploit, but to do so it needs to face harsh reality and present not just a workable roadmap to independence but also a clear prospectus on what independence really means.

Evidently, Conservatives are insisting this isn’t an attack on democracy, that legitimate powers exist to overturn Holyrood laws if they impinge on UK matters, and that this is all part of the devolution settlement. But that’s not how most people see it. Folk don’t sit around their kitchen tables saying "well, Section 35 orders are part of the Scotland Act". They say: "I don’t care what this law is about, killing it is an attack on my country."

And that’s why, once the acid drains from the bath, once the food on the fork is truly studied, that this week may be seen as the most significant step on the road to independence since 2014.