As I drove along one of Islay’s many coastline roads during my recent summer break, it struck me with a clunk, just like an anvil landing on Wylie Coyote’s head.

There it was... a prominent “Yes” sign, next to a large Saltire flapping away in a garden. If there’s a way to snap you out of a holiday reverie it’s a reminder of our constitutional stalemate.

Such displays of political allegiance are becoming increasingly common. Indeed, prior to the 2014 referendum, I just don’t recall seeing many flags outside people’s homes, except the odd Union Flag for a jubilee.

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But travelling through this SNP stronghold – Jenni Minto secured just a fraction under half the votes in May – it felt as if I was in the heartlands. Sturgeon’s own Middle Scotland, co-existing with yet diametrically opposed to Johnson’s Middle England.

One half of the constituency may not have voted SNP, but their political allegiance was less on show – I saw one Union Flag during my week there compared to several Saltires. And even though Argyll and Bute voted “No” seven years ago (58.5 per cent to 41.5% Yes), a lot has happened in the intervening years and the tide may be turning.

The big game-changer has to be the pandemic, which will only intensify the sense of disconnect and desire for more, particularly among the younger islanders.

Rural house prices have risen at their fastest rate since before the 2008 financial crisis. Lockdown has led to prospective buyers being captivated by the Brigadoon-like idyllic setting during enforced staycation. Also, the flexibility of home working has meant a return to the “good life” is no longer an unobtainable dream.

The lack of available homes has been a long-running sore, but as staycation demand feeds the holiday home market, more properties will be beyond reach, stoking discontent. However, this could be counter-balanced by the rise in unionist-voting incomers who choose to stay.

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The legacy of the Clearances still cuts deep – the stark sight of derelict cottages of evicted ancestors dotted across the land remain a painful physical reminder of a cruel practice inflicted on generations past. Recent cuts to hospitality jobs only serve to open old wounds.

Finally, there’s the rise of a modern independent identity based on cultural heritage. It felt as if every shop played Scottish folk music in the background, and I don’t think it was just for the tourists. A love of all things Gaelic is growing among the young, and this is likely to favour the SNP.

You could argue similar tensions are at play up and down the country, and you’d be right. But, as a representation of Scotland in miniature, Islay has it all. For this visiting mainlander it was clear – the beat of nationalism is loud, and even ferry fiascos and care home deaths won’t silence it.

As a certain songwriter with a love for Scotland once said, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. And it most definitely isn’t south.

 

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