IN a rare moment of awkwardness in front of the TV cameras Nicola Sturgeon was forced to listen as the BBC presenter Sophie Raworth read out a long list of all the years a second independence referendum had been promised and not happened.

The First Minister's lips twitched a smidgeon as Ms Raworth reminded her of the many promises she had made.

“In 2017, Autumn 2018 was the common sense time for another referendum. In Autumn ‘18 you said you would set out your plans for another referendum in the not too distant future. In Autumn 2019, you said the referendum must happen next year. In Autumn 2020 you said you wouldn’t rule out a vote in 2021 and in 2021 you said you would start pushing for a referendum in Spring 2022. So when it is going to be the right time?” Ms Raworth asked in January.

With almost yearly pledges made to hold Indyref2 – 2022 was ruled out because of the pandemic – it was probably no surprise that ahead of the Holyrood election last May, 2023 became the latest year declared for the vote to take place, Covid permitting.

But will it happen? Almost all observers think not. For a start the pandemic is not over. Next there is the prospect of a protracted Supreme Court battle over the planned Holyrood legislation to hold the vote. The bill is yet to be introduced to Scottish Parliament.

And then there is Ukraine.

Any scepticism over Indyref2 taking place in 2023 has simply deepened since Russia invaded its neighbour on February 24.

The First Minister and the Scottish Greens's co-leader Patrick Harvie appear adamant that the war isn't going to influence their plans. But more tellingly Lorna Slater wasn't prepared to commit to 2023 when pressed on the prospect last Sunday.

Indyref2 was previously delayed by the Scottish Government to see how the Brexit deal shaped up and then in 2020 to focus government's energy on dealing with the pandemic. Would it really be full stream ahead under the threat of nuclear war?

Of course, no one knows how long the conflict will last.

If it drags on for months and escalates to a larger scale, will voters in Scotland be in the mood to debate the benefits or not of becoming an independent country amid fears World War Three could be round the corner?

And what if the war does end in the coming weeks. Would Indyref2 still go ahead next year as Europe adjusts to the new political landscape?

The invasion and its aftermath will also require the Scottish Government to overhaul its prospectus for independence.

While the 2014 White Paper is being refreshed by a team of 11 civil servants to take in Brexit, borders, trade and currency, a whole new set of problems have been thrown up by Ukraine for which the SNP and the Greens will need to provide credible answers.

Should the 2023 vote go ahead, the campaign would inevitably be dominated by questions over defence and security. Issues such as 'Will an independent Scotland be safer than Scotland in the UK?'; 'Will an independent Scotland still want to get rid of nuclear weapons?'; 'Will an independent Scotland be prepared to spend 2% of GDP on defence?'

These would be the sombre themes rather than the more upbeat ones of how to create a better, more prosperous and more equal country - the ones independence supporters would prefer to be talking about.

Should Indyref2 be pushed back into 2024 or the following two years, defence and security arguments will continue to play a major role in the campaign but may do so less intensely than so close to the war.

And finally the chance of winning in 2023. The First Minister and her team will have this goal at the forefront of their minds.

The latest poll, published on Friday and the first to be carried out since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, showed a slight dip in support for independence, and little public appetite for a new vote.

Some 59 per cent of those surveyed by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman said talks on the timing of Indyref2 should stop, with just 29 per cent saying discussions should continue. Even 43 per cent of SNP voters said discussions on when a second independence referendum should take place should be suspended.

Despite the polling results the SNP again suggested there would be no pause with MSP Rona Mackay declaring it would be "grist to the Kremlin mill" and would hand Vladimir Putin "an effective veto on Scottish democracy". Mackay's remarks should be read with a hefty pinch of salt.

Fundamentally, it wouldn't make sense for the First Minister to hold a referendum in 2023 she would be far from certain from winning.

The consequence of losing would be the end of the prospect of independence for decades to come which would not only see her long held ambition for Scotland vanish, but also the abrupt halt to her own political career.