SNP MP Joanna Cherry says independence vote may not happen next year

Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold Indyref2 by the end of 2023 but an increasing number of politicians and observers are sceptical of the voting taking place in that timetable.

In an exclusive interview in The Herald today former First Minister Alex Salmond added his voice to the debate saying a referendum next year does "not look credible".

READ MORE: Alex Salmond: Nicola Sturgeon aim for Indyref2 next year 'does not look credible'

Writing in The National today, in a column which was published before Mr Salmond's intervention, Ms Cherry appealed to parties to campaign on local issues at the forthcoming council elections.

"As one might expect, the most nuanced contribution to the debate about indyref2 in the last week came from Kevin Pringle.

"He pointed out the intellectual poverty of the Tories attempts to use the local elections to send a message to the SNP that people don’t want another indyref and the need for these elections be about local issues and policies," she wrote.

"He also expressed a scepticism which I share about the likelihood of an independence referendum next year given “the hurdles to be overcome and extensive preparations required”.

She suggested a series of "egregious" UK Government's policies including on the cost of living crisis, on refugees, as well as on Brexit and devolution strengthened the "impetus to independence" but the campaign had stalled.

"We cannot guarantee that the case for independence will survive the full glare of a second campaign proper if it is not refreshed to take account of the changed circumstances in which we find ourselves," she wrote.

"And so, to my final plea. To be brutally frank, the independence debate has stalled. It will continue that way until those in a leadership position inject some life into it."

She added: "A clear plan and a fresh prospectus are needed. Many grassroots groups with experts of considerable standing are working on projects and more are waiting in the wings to assist. What we need is a signal from those at the top that these efforts will be taken on board and given focus."

Writing in the Sunday Times, Mr Pringle, a senior ex-staff member in both the Scottish Government and the SNP, said there were too many “hurdles” yet to be overcome for a vote to happen in 2023.

He argued that Scots were “uncomfortable” with the idea of another referendum on such a tight timetable, which would make it harder for the Yes side to win any campaign.

Earlier this month, Scottish Government minister Patrick Harvie said a draft Referendum Bill would be published imminently for MSPs to scrutinise and then vote upon.

While this is likely to pass thanks to the pro-independence majority at Holyrood, its legality will be challenged by the UK Government, which believes legislating for a referendum is out with the Scottish Parliament’s powers.

A combination of the war in Ukraine, the cost of living crisis and the Covid pandemic have all led to speculation that Ms Sturgeon will have to push back the date of any vote.

Mr Pringle, who worked as a special adviser to Mr Salmond while he was First Minister and also worked for the SNP and the Yes campaign, said a 2023 referendum was unlikely.

“It is unwise to make any definite predictions in such volatile times, but it seems reasonable to say out loud that an independence referendum is unlikely to take place by the end of next year, given the hurdles to be overcome and extensive preparations required,” he wrote in the Sunday Times.

“I don’t think the war in Ukraine has changed this, in the sense that it was no more likely before the Russian invasion and all the destruction and instability being wreaked.”

He added: “A referendum is a means to an end, nothing more. If the Scottish Government pursues it within a tight 2023 timescale that people are uncomfortable with, even assuming it doesn’t happen then, the task of building support for independence itself may be undermined.”

Mr Pringle said that given the current parliamentary term is not due to end until 2026, there was “time enough” for pro-independence MSPs to “get it right”.

In her column today Ms Cherry, the MP for Edinburgh South West and the party's former justice and home affairs spokeswoman at Westminster, appealed to "SNP colleagues and indeed the wider independence movement" to stop "trying to draw parallels between the debate about Scottish independence and the war in Ukraine". 

"It comes over as crass and insensitive and it takes us nowhere. Scotland is in a consensual union with England. When we last got the chance to say whether we wanted to leave that union, the answer was No," she wrote.

"Ukraine has been invaded and its people subjected to war crimes. In the light of these facts, there can be no comparison, meaningful or otherwise."

The MP also urged SNP supporters to stop attacking journalists with whom they disagreed following a series of recent attacks on political reporters and writers. 

Earlier this month the SNP's Westminster chief Ian Blackford suggested there may be a pause to the timetable for Indyref2 but later rowed back on his comments.

Speaking on BBC Scotland’s Sunday Show, he said: “Is anybody suggesting that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin should determine the timeline for an independence referendum in Scotland?”

The SNP MP pointed out his party had fought last year’s Scottish Parliament election on a manifesto which included a commitment to holding a second vote on independence.

The SNP failed to win an outright majority at Holyrood, but the addition of Green MSPs through the co-operation agreement – who also back another referendum – mean there is a majority for such a vote in the Scottish Parliament.

Blackford said: “We fought an election last year, which the SNP won, we now have an agreement with the Greens, there’s a majority for independence.”

His comments come just two weeks after he cautioned those wanting immediate progress on organising a second vote on independence to be “mindful of where we are” given events elsewhere in the world.Blackford said on March 7 the party must be “respectful of the responsibilities” it has following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.