Labour are surging ahead in opinion polls as voters take a dim view of the early days of Liz Truss’ time in No 10 Downing Street. 

Last week a voting intention poll for the next General Election estimated Sir Keir Starmer’s party was likely to be backed by 54 per cent of the electorate - a 33% lead over the Conservatives.  

Since the The Prime Minister has rowed back on her plan to cut income taxes for the highest earners - a deeply unpopular policy with the public – and has attempted to steady her ailing party and improve its fortunes.  

But Labour’s lead has remained steadfast – with polls showing only dropping to 19% at its lowest estimate, and potentially as high as 28 per cent.  

But how is this lead reflected in Scotland, where the SNP remain the dominant political party. And can Sir Keir overtake Nicola Sturgeon as the leader with the most Scottish MPs?  

What does Scottish polling tell us?  

While most polls are UK-wide with a statistically unreliable Scottish subsample, two polls this week focused exclusively on the electorate north of the border.  

Both found that Labour are increasing their backing in Scotland, and look likely to overtake the Tories significantly. 

In a blow to Liz Truss’ hopes of winning a Gerneral Election, her party is being predicted to be wiped out in Scotland next time the country votes.

A survey of 1,029 people conducted by Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman found Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 30%, up by five points since the previous poll at the end of June, compared to the Tories’ 15%, down by three points. 

But even Labour’s increasing fortunes are not enough to dent the SNP’s popularity.

Nicola Sturgeon’s party remained well ahead of the competition on 46% of the vote. The First Minister was the most popular politician in the poll, boasting a +12 net approval rating, followed by the +4 net rating of Sir Keir. 

Liz Truss’s net rating was -57, compared to -53 for her predecessor and -48 for Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. 

A second poll out this week, for unionist lobby group Scotland in Union, also found support for Labour increasing.  

The Herald: SurvationSurvation (Image: Survation)

At the next General Election, pollsters Survation say Labour’s vote has surged by seven points to 31%.  

Douglas Ross’s Conservatives would fall four points to 15%, almost certainly guaranteeing a 1997 like wipeout of all six of their MP. 

But just like the previous poll, The SNP remain dominant on 44%. 

The Herald: PAPA (Image: Colin Mearns)

What do the experts say? 

Despite Labour’s leap up the polls, the new high-watermark of support may not translate into a challenge for the SNP.  

With the constitutional debate remains at the forefront of Scottish politics, voters are split into nationalists and unionist blocks – and Labour appear to be attracting the backing of those already supporting other unionists parties. 

Splitting this vote may in the end only help Nicola Sturgeon’s party, which will take the majority of seats at the next General Election once again unless there is a major change. 

READ MORE: Does Labour really have a 33 point lead over the Tories?

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta Comres, said: “The SNP remaining on 46% is notable. I would not have been surprised to see Labour perhaps eat into that SNP vote share, but the fact that they did not all-but confirms that they're fishing in the unionist vote pool rather than a specifically centre-left one in Scotland. 

“Indeed, on this evidence, Labour would not gain many Scottish seats. Their current UK-wide poll lead means they'd do serious damage to the Conservatives in England, and their huge majority would be in spite of Scotland, not because of it like it was in the Blair years.”