STEPHEN Flynn didn’t have a particularly sparkling PMQs debut as SNP Westminster leader today. 

He made the rookie mistake of keeping his contributions short - most unlike his wordy predecessor Ian Blackford - and found himself sitting down again before he knew it. 

But he did lob one decent hand grenade in Rishi Sunak’s direction, telling him a new poll had just dropped showing support for independence at 56 per cent, and support for the SNP above 50%, suggesting Yes can now win either a legal referendum or a de facto one.

“He is going to have to up his game,” Mr Flynn warned the PM.

The SNP's deputy leader Keith Brown was also thrilled by the Ipsos Mori survey for STV.

“Momentum behind Yes is rocketing,” he declared.

The poll was certainly full of numbers to warm Nationalist hearts.

Read more: Support for independence jumps to 56 per cent

Besides that 56-44 headline, it also found 53% of Scots would vote for the SNP in the general election Nicola Sturgeon wants to fight as a de facto referendum, and another 2% would vote for the Greens, giving a convincing pro-Yes vote of 55%. 

However that doesn’t mean the next UK Government would agree such a result meant independence, especially if stood on a ticket of opposing such an interpretation. 

The new survey also contains some ill-omens for the SNP. Trust in the party is slipping, especially on running the NHS, but also over schools and the economy. 

Ms Sturgeon’s personal ratings are still positive, but have shrunk steadily for the past two years. 

More than 40% of voters also believe Labour is ready to form the next UK Government, meaning the next election will be about far more than a de facto Indyref2.

The same Ipsos Mori polls have also been here before. Indeed, they have been even better before, then swung back into No territory.

Read more: Flynn attacks Labour and Tories in PMQs debut as SNP Commons leader

In November 2021, the survey put the Yes-No split at 55-45. Six months later Yes was trailing 49-51.

In October 2020, the survey put support for Yes at a record 58-42.

Mr Brown hailed that one as a “landmark” and said it showed independence was now “Scotland’s settled will”.

A few months later the Ipsos polling was back at 50-50.

The same  2020 poll also had SNP voting intention in Holyrood seats at 58%, putting the party on course for a comfy majority the following May.

The actual vote was under 48%, and that majority never came.

One good poll is only one good poll. The trend is the thing.