Analysis: Tory chaos propels boring Labour towards government

There is little that makes the opposition seem more like a government-in-waiting than the government-in-situ repeatedly crumbling.

Voters clearly agree. In July, YouGov gave Sir Keir Starmer’s party a one-point lead over Boris Johnson’s Tories. By the time of their conference in September, following Liz Truss’s tanking of the economy, their lead had jumped to 33 points.

That conference in Liverpool was a pivotal moment for the modern Labour party.

It was dull. It was probably the most boring Labour conference in years.
There weren’t any fights, there were no scandals or rows, no factions arguing over the agenda.

There were no arguments over anti-semitism.

A possible row over the singing of the national anthem never materialised.

READ MORE: 'Proof Labour has changed' as members opens conference with God Save The King

In less than two years, the party has ditched the battles of the Corbyn years, moving firmly towards the centre.

Despite serving in his shadow cabinet, and campaigning for him to be the Prime Minister, Sir Keir has finally and firmly taken back control of the party from the left.

Jeremy Corbyn – who had the whip removed in 2020 – will now almost certainly not even be the Labour candidate in Islington North at the next general election.

Barring any spectacular missteps, that’s an election that Labour should win comfortably.

Rishi Sunak’s premiership may be slightly less chaotic than his predecessors, but the Tories are still nowhere near recovering, and Labour’s lead currently hovers around the 24-point mark.

A recent by-election in Chester saw a 14-point swing towards Sir Keir’s candidate.

READ MORE: Chester by-election: Labour's Samantha Dixon retains seat

One poll from Savanta even predicted a 314-seat majority, with Labour taking the Prime Minister’s true blue Richmond seat in North Yorkshire. That would be a remarkable though unlikely achievement given that the party has no councillors in the constituency.

That it is even being talked about as a possibility is a fair indication of how the UK’s politics has changed in a not very long time.

At the 2019 general election, Boris Johnson trounced Jeremy Corbyn, winning a majority of 80 seats, thanks to a breakthrough in the Red Wall, constituencies in the Midlands and Northern England which had historically always come out for Labour.

With Covid striking soon after, the then prime minister won plaudits for the UK’s vaccine response, and even though the Tory poll ratings dipped, Labour were never really in contention.

It wasn’t until the first Partygate reports emerged at the end of last year, that Sir Keir saw his chances of becoming the next Prime Minister improve.

And then this year there was the Sue Gray report, with its tales of cake ambush, partying on the eve of Prince Philip’s funeral, and the suitcase full of booze for “wine-time Fridays”.

And then there were the fixed penalty notices, with Mr Johnson becoming the first prime minister in history to have been found guilty of breaking the law.

Yet voters still weren’t quite ready to switch to Labour entirely.

In May’s local elections across the UK the results were modest. Labour took 35% of the vote, down one point from 2018, but up three points on the 2019 General Election.

The party gained a net 108 councillors – 22 in England, 20 in Scotland, and 66 in Wales.

The 1.6% swing to Labour was enough for them to move back into second place in Scotland, but their 21.8% was still way down on the 31% they took at the 2012 election.

While the Chris Pincher affair ultimately brought down Mr Johnson it still didn’t necessarily propel Sir Keir towards No 10.

That was achieved by the summer’s lengthy and brutal Tory leadership and the resulting turmoil of the Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.

READ MORE: Liz Truss admits mistakes were made in mini budget and blames Kwasi Kwarteng

On September 22, the day before the fiscal statement, YouGov had Labour polling at 40%. By September 29 they were on 54%.

What has been notable about Sir Keir’s year is his attempt to nail down positions on tricky issues, particularly on Brexit.

“We’ve left,” he told The Herald over the summer. “And the question now is whether we spend the whole time looking over our shoulder, or whether we look at the road ahead, and I think we should look at the road ahead.”

As polling expert Mark Diffley explains, while questions remain about the process of how an independent Scotland would rejoin the EU, the fact that Sir Keir has now discounted it entirely in favour of making “Brexit work” is a boost to the SNP.

“Every time Keir Starmer or a UK Labour politician is in the media saying, ‘well we’re not going to look at Brexit, we’re not going to relitigate any of that’, that just gives the SNP a huge stick with which to beat Labour in Scotland,” the founder and director of the Diffley Partnership said. “And they obviously don’t shy away from doing that.”

“This is a GB-wide approach,” Mr Diffley adds. “Which, just by virtue of scale has a concentration on what works in England rather than what works in Scotland.

“So the focus is going to be, what do Labour need to do to get a majority? And that primarily lies in – whether it’s the Red Wall or in other areas – winning seats back in England.”

One of the key groups being targeted by the party at the next vote has been dubbed “middle-aged mortgage man”.

This is typically someone who is in their fifties, has a mortgage and a decent job in the private sector. They will almost certainly have voted for Brexit.

They are, according to research, a group of voters who backed Johnson in 2019. But with Mr Kwarteng’s tumultuous fiscal statement fuelling an eyewatering rise in interest rates, Labour believes they could switch.

One strategist in Sir Keir’s office told the Guardian: “For a long time every time we talked to the public we were trying to talk to four, five different groups of people.

“Going into the next election, we’ve got to have this one person in our minds whenever we’re doing media appearances or advertising. That’s how we will win.”

Divided parties don’t win elections, and Labour’s parliamentary party is the most disciplined it has been in years. Even when it comes to their relationship with the unions.

A key moment for Sir Keir came when he sacked transport spokesman Sam Tarry after he joined members of the RMT on the picket line outside Euston.

The party denied he had been sacked for joining the strike but because he appeared on TV without permission and made up policy on the hoof.

Nevertheless, Sir Keir has made clear he does not want his frontbench team anywhere near a picket line.

“I’m very clear that the Labour Party in opposition needs to be the Labour Party in power.

“And a government doesn’t go on picket lines, a government tries to resolve disputes,” he said at the time.

With the cost of living crisis biting, and inflation skyrocketing there is no shortage of disputes.

According to some estimates, there have been 1.5 million days lost to strikes in December alone.

There are questions here over how Labour would resolve these disputes. Would they talk to unions like the RMT? Would they give the Royal College of Nursing the inflation plus 5% pay rise they’re asking for?

Meanwhile, the party has been wooing business.

Earlier this month, they held an event with industry in Canary Wharf, ostensibly to launch a report promoting and encouraging start-ups. It was attended by senior figures including John Allan, chairman of Tesco and Barratt Developments, pictured inset.

Opening the conference, Sir Keir said the party wasn’t just pro-business but “proudly pro-business”. 

There are difficult questions here too, particularly over immigration.

At the CBI conference in November, the party leader told industry leaders that the “short-term fix” of using foreign workers to plug labour shortages needed to end.

The promise to end “immigration dependency” left Nigel Farage claiming that “Labour are now to the right of the Tories on immigration”.

Nevertheless, there has been a huge surge in donations to Labour from firms.

Electoral Commission figures showed the party matching the Tories for donations in the third quarter this year.

Clive Lewis, chairman of River Island, donated £100,000 in August.

Fred Story, 66, the chief executive of Story Homes, a housebuilder based in Carlisle, who backed the Brexit campaign, also donated £100,000 in September.

His company previously backed John Stevenson, the local Tory MP.

Richard Flint, the former chief executive of Sky Bet and a non-executive director of Flutter Entertainment, the FTSE 100 owner of Paddy Power and Betfair, donated £35,000 to the party’s funds last year.

However, Labour still relies heavily on cash from the biggest trade unions.

It received more than £725,000 from Unite, almost £300,000 from the GMB and almost £200,000 from Unison.

Even though the next election is at least 12 months away, the campaigning is already underway. Parties are selecting candidates and key messages will be honed during 2023.

Senior Tories are openly admitting that they will lose.

Veteran backbencher Sir Charles Walker said it was “almost impossible” for Mr Sunak to win.

Fifteen of his colleagues have already announced they will quit rather than face the public at a vote.

Will Labour not being the Tories be enough, or will Sir Keir need to do more than avoid rows and say little?

If 2022 has taught us anything, it’s that much can change in a year.