It’s a tried and tested political maxim that when the men in grey suits come for you, it’s time to leave the stage. Or, if you’re Boris Johnson, to find another stage – at the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers conference in Colorado Springs, say, which august organisation leapt from obscurity to a strange kind of infamy in October when it paid the former UK Prime Minister £315,000 for a 30 minute after-dinner speech.

Ian Blackford MP, for five years now the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the House of Commons, can only dream of so glamorous a political after-life. But he well knows that even if the men in grey are wearing kilts – even if they’re not men at all, in fact – the outcome and the message are the same: here’s your jacket, pal.

We don’t fully know if it was a tap on the tweed shoulder which influenced the 61-year-old’s decision, announced on Thursday, to step down as SNP leader at Westminster. We only know that when the Parliamentary group meets to elect a new leader at its annual general meeting on Tuesday, his name will not be on the ballot.

“[N]ow is the right time for fresh leadership at Westminster as we head towards a general election and the next steps in winning Scotland’s independence,” Blackford said in a statement. “While I am stepping down as Westminster leader, I will continue in my role as the MP for Ross, Skye and Lochaber, and I have also accepted a new role at the centre of the SNP’s independence campaign, leading on business engagement.”

You can read what you like into that word ‘accepted’, by the way. But you can’t read much at all into some of the other words used to describe last week’s events. ‘Ousted’ was the Daily Telegraph’s take, while for The Guardian it was ‘forced to step down’. Not much room for manoeuvre there.

So no longer will the name Ian Blackford be bellowed by the Speaker of the House of Commons after a Keir Starmer v Whoever’s Tory Leader This Week spat at Prime Minister’s Questions. No longer will it presage a speech from the man derided for once referring to himself as “a simple crofter” – he’s an ex-banker – and described memorably (if cruelly) by someone else as “a baked potato in a three-piece suit.”

That slight came courtesy of the New Statesman, a Labour-supporting publication. “Blackford, like Alex Salmond before him, is a creature of Westminster and gives every impression that he happily avails himself of the place’s fine dining and sedentary lifestyle,” it wrote. It noted, too, that Blackford lacks Salmond’s “guile or strategic brilliance” (is that what you call it?). That when he rises to speak in the Commons clutching his customary sheaf of papers he is met with groans, sighs and pantomime yawns. That his “only trick” is “to threaten either to walk or be kicked out of the chamber, without quite fulfilling either scenario.”

That last barb is not strictly true. Blackford was very definitely kicked out of the chamber in 2018 during a Brexit debate, for the crime of refusing to sit down when he was asked to. He was followed out of the chamber by the entire SNP group. Someone on the government benches called it a stunt, though it was pretty noisy so perhaps they just used a word which sounded like stunt. Either way Joanna Cherry offered a cheery farewell wave as she brought up the rear.

Blackford was ejected again in January, this time for having the temerity to refer to the man who would one day address the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers conference in Colorado Springs as a liar. What was he thinking? “I will speak truth to power,” Blackford said as Jacob Rees Mogg moved to silence him with a Steven Seagal choke hold (I’m guessing that’s what happened. I wasn’t actually there so it’s possible Blackford was simply escorted from the chamber by the Serjeant at Arms and parked on the naughty step until lunchtime).

The Herald:

So yes, he has been a rumbunctious Commons performer in his day. Those pantomime yawns say more about the message, perhaps, than the man.

Talking of arms though – the long sort, which stretch from Edinburgh to London – Nicola Sturgeon’s grip on her pesky Westminster cohort is deemed to have weakened slightly with the imminent departure of its long-serving leader, both a friend and a loyalist. There’s trouble brewing for the First Minister on two fronts, first with the Scottish Government’s controversial Gender Recognition Reform Bill – former front-bencher Joanna Cherry MP is a trenchant opponent and even the UN’s special rapporteur on violence against women has voiced her doubts – and second with her own proposal to make the next UK General Election a de facto referendum on independence. Some among the SNP group at Westminster are unhappy with that plan and don’t mind saying so.

Criticism more specific to Blackford concerns his handling of what is known as ‘the Patrick Grady Affair’, allegations of sexual impropriety made against the Glasgow North MP. Leaked audio revealed Blackford directing the SNP group to back Grady and though he later apologised for the way the issue had been handled, the apology was branded a “cop out” and “a publicity stunt” by the victim. 

And just last week a coup attempt was “killed”, as one SNP insider put it, reportedly after Aberdeen South MP Stephen Flynn told party officials he was going to stand against Blackford at the AGM and had the backing to win. Flynn later took to Twitter to say he had no intention of standing.

So who will be the new SNP leader at Westminster? Funnily enough, the smart money is on 34-year-old Stephen Flynn, who loves Bruce Springsteen almost as much as he loves Dundee United, and whose rather more pragmatic view of fossil fuels could cause friction with the First Minister.

Perhaps the bigger question is whether Flynn will stand unopposed. Other MPs already mentioned in connection with the leadership include Alyn Smith, Stewart McDonald, Alison Thewliss and Kirsten Oswald, who is currently deputy leader. All four tweeted tributes to Blackford last week and all used virtually the same form of words, though Oswald at least had the wit to change the qualifying adjective. Great minds, eh? Take it from them, then: Ian Blackford has put in “an incredible shift”.

Don’t bet against Joanna Cherry, either. She was sacked by Blackford in February 2021 from her front bench role and took to Twitter in the aftermath of his announcement that he was standing down to give her tuppence worth. “It’s time for fresh leadership and tolerance of debate and diverse viewpoints,” she wrote pointedly. “I hope the SNP Westminster group will now be left to choose our new leader without outside interference and in accordance with our standing orders.”

And here’s a final thought: if one recent election projection is correct and the Tories retain just 22 seats in the next General Election, whoever takes over could officially become the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster. Imagine that.

If you think this World Cup is topsy-turvy it has nothing on what could be in store. All eyes are on London, then.