Nicola Sturgeon: A new leader for the SNP. So what will change?

He told me he was standing aside while folk were still asking “why” he was going, rather than, with a weary voice, “when?”

I take Nicola Sturgeon at her word when she cites both personal and political reasons for departing. However, I dispute, to some extent, her strategic analysis.

On the personal point, the departing FM has given numerous Delphic hints down the years that she would welcome a new challenge, beyond politics.

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Plus, never overlook the scunner factor in politics. Nicola Sturgeon has had it up to here – and probably there.

As First Minister, she had the shadow of her predecessor looming over her.

She combated Covid for Scotland, every single day for more than two years.

More, she had the perpetual pressures of office, both party and governmental. The intensity, the brutality of contemporary politics, as she categorised it.

I get that. I have seen it happen to others. The relief when the endless demands lessen and cease.

However, she went further. She said her decision partly arose from a calculation that she had now become something of an obstacle in the pursuit of independence, rather than a conduit.

That people viewed the offer of independence through the prism of her personality – which some had come to dislike or disdain.

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Now, I accept entirely that prolonged periods of power can generate enmity or exasperation. To govern is to choose. To choose is to exclude. The excluded are unhappy.

Despite that, I simply do not believe that Nicola Sturgeon is a hurdle thwarting independence.

Her political standing remains colossal. Her contribution, her status, substantial. Certainly in Scotland, but also across the UK and even globally.

If the independence campaign has problems – and it does – then I do not believe they lie primarily at the Bute House door of the departing leader.

Rather, the cause is becalmed. The Supreme Court – and simple common sense – confirm that Westminster remains sovereign in these islands. And Westminster currently says “no” to indyref2.

Nicola Sturgeon could not find a way round that. Frankly, her successor will struggle. But the SNP will continue, with a new leader – and will persist in that aim of independence.

So what might change? Firstly, I believe this marks the end of the notion of making the next UK General Election a de facto referendum.

That was always flawed. Unionists would spend the campaign deriding the demand – then claim victory for their cause if the SNP fell even a fraction short of fifty per cent. For Nationalists, a dangerous cul de sac.

To be fair, Ms Sturgeon never pretended that her plan was ideal, or even particularly desirable. But it will fall with her, at least in its current form.

So the new SNP leader will need a new strategy. Or perhaps an old one, revived.

There are cogent voices arguing that the party – and the Scottish Government – need to realign with the anxieties and worries of the Scottish people.

Need, in short, to address popular concerns – such as the economy and public services. To make that the palpable primary purpose, while simultaneously arguing, en passant, how much more could be done with independent powers.

Of late, I have cited senior SNP politicians using metaphors of flight. From the Union, from Westminster.

I understand the temptation, particularly after the Truss inter-regnum. But the concept of flight, of break-up, tends to disquiet the citizenry.

In departing, Ms Sturgeon stressed the need for her party to appeal beyond the ranks of the committed, to reach those who were uncertain.

Away from the purely partisan, the new First Minister has a long list of challenges to address. From public spending to the health service to education. And, of course, strikes.

It is reasonable to argue that these problems derive from UK and global circumstances, such as inflation and the conflict in Ukraine. However, one can also understand, politically, why Opposition leaders are less than charitable.

Other problems crave attention, such as the sharp conflict over gender recognition.

I would expect the new leader will want, if possible, to implement Holyrood’s majority for reform. But, perhaps, with less evident zeal than Ms Sturgeon. With, perhaps, more room for compromise.

Then there is the working pact with the Greens – who stress, accurately, that the deal survives Ms Sturgeon’s departure, even though she was its prime motivator.

Indeed, the Greens have gone further, advising the next leader to “set an end date for oil and gas”.

Think they might get a firm “maybe” on that, depending on who wins. There are key figures in the SNP who are far from ready to turn “Scotland’s oil” into “Scotland’s shame”.

Then, there is the broad economy. Nicola Sturgeon made choices which boosted social security support for the poorest while shifting more of the tax burden onto middle and upper earners. I would expect that to continue.

But what of economic growth? It remains the declared policy of the Scottish Government, in its ten-year plan, to encourage entrepreneurial activity and thus stimulate the broader economy.

One might reasonably note that times have been decidedly tough, throughout the UK and globally.

But there has been precious little sign of stimulating enterprise, either through tax or regulation policy.

To the contrary, business complains of further burdens and obstacles, from deposit return to potential constraints on alcohol advertising.

More generally, what political and economic perspective will the renewed SNP project?

John Swinney, wisely, has decided, on balance, that his leadership days are in the past. But he advised his colleagues to “anchor the SNP in the mainstream of Scottish politics.” He characterised that as “an absolutely critical requirement” for future success.

We await developments with interest. For now, it is only right to thank Nicola Sturgeon for her efforts – and to wish her well in future endeavours. Whatever they might be.