STEVEN Gerrard will travel to Easter Road tonight for the first time since he was appointed Rangers manager earlier in the year. Hibernian’s stadium has been a tricky venue for the Ibrox club in recent years and, once again, it looks as if Gerrard’s side are in for a difficult game.

The last match between the two sides finished as a 5-5 draw in a hugely enjoyable and wonderfully absurd encounter on the final day of last season. There probably won’t be quite as many goals this time around but both teams have every reason to feel confident going into the game.

As Neil Lennon noted in a press conference earlier this week, Rangers are an altogether different animal under Gerrard and it could be the case that Lennon’s impressive record against the Ibrox club as Hibernian manager may not count for much after all. Having said that, the Leith side still have more than enough about them to cause Rangers problems tonight.

Hibernian have been their characteristically inconsistent selves so far this season, but seem to have turned a corner in recent weeks. After going seven games without a win, Lennon’s side finally got a win away to Hamilton at the start of the month before putting in a dominant performance against Celtic at the weekend, finishing the match as comfortable 2-0 winners.

Lennon has been criticised from some sections of the Hibs support for often tinkering with his tactical setup this season and when we analyse the club’s results under different systems, it becomes apparent why this is the case. Lennon has been switching between playing three and four at the back, and the difference between the two setups could hardly be more stark.

When deploying a back three, Hibernian’s results - and performances - have dipped significantly. Lennon’s team average 0.57 goals per 90 minutes in such a system, and concede 1.57 goals per 90. Hibernian’s expected goals (xG) tell a similar story under a back three, with the team averaging an xG For of 0.77 and an xG Against of 1.43. This demonstrates that this is no fluke; Hibs struggle to create opportunities, and give more away, when resorting to a back three.

When playing with a more traditional back four, the improvement is clear. Hibernian’s goals per 90 jumps to 1.29, with their goals against per 90 plummeting to 0.43. Both xG metrics follow suit. Put simply; if Hibs line up with a back four, Rangers fans should be worried. If Lennon goes for three at the back, then Rangers will face a far more accomodating Hibernian team.

Hibernian have looked dangerous in attack this season - only Celtic and Rangers have scored more goals than them in the Premiership - and players such as Florian Kamberi, Daryl Horgan and Stevie Mallan have proven that they are capable of producing individual moments of brilliance to turn a match on its head. But there are weaknesses for Rangers to exploit, particularly at the other end of the pitch.

As a collective, Hibs have one of the lowest success rates in the league when it comes to defensive duels, winning just 20.7% of their attempts. Only Dundee, Hamilton and St Mirren are worse in this regard, and this is something that should give Gerrard reason to be cautiously optimistic. As impressive as Hibernian can be going forward, they can struggle to win the ball back when facing especially physical opponents. Alfredo Morelos should benefit here; the forward’s hold-up play is a huge feather in his cap and if the numbers are anything to go by, he should find a lot of joy at Easter Road tonight.

Even on an individual basis, it’s clear that the Hibernian defence are struggling in this regard. Only one player - Ryan Porteous - makes the Premiership’s top 30 players based on defensive duel success, and even then he is in 28th place. This difficulty winning the ball back could prove particularly problematic for Lennon tonight, as Rangers typically enjoy more of the ball than their opponents and excel at retaining possession.

Moving a little further up the park, there are also some issues in the Hibs midfield that Rangers will surely look to exploit. This is perhaps unsurprising, given the fact that Lennon had to replace his entire midfield after Scott Allan, John McGinn and Dylan McGeouch all left the club in the summer. The new players have generally bedded in quite well, but still lack the cohesion of last season’s midfield.

Midfielders will generally be defined by their passing and their ability to transition from a defensive phase to an attacking one, or vice-versa. When we take a look at the Premiership’s best passers, only two of Lennon’s players make the top 30. Marvin Bartley and Efe Ambrose make the list, but not a single Hibernian midfielder makes an appearance.

This should be a cause for concern for fans of the Easter Road side. Bartley and Ambrose are defensive players and, as a result, are generally playing relatively simple passes. Obviously, it’s still encouraging that their passes are finding their intended targets so regularly, but it’s certainly worrying that Lennon’s midfield aren’t performing especially well in this regard.

Part of this could come down to the frenetic style of play that has characterised Hibernian since Lennon took charge. Hibs generally play a high-energy, aggressive game and this means that players like Mallan are often attempting high-risk passes to split the opposition defence. Many won’t work out, but the ones that do are generally highly effective.

For Rangers, this means that maintaining a solid defensive shape is of utmost importance. By utilising a well-organised defence, Rangers can close down any gaps at the back which, in theory, should result in less space for Hibernian to exploit. The Leith club have a number of exceptional dribblers - Horgan is second only to James Forrest in terms of his dribbling success rate this season - so ensuring there are no gaps to exploit can nullify this threat.

While Hibernian have been at times maddeningly inconsistent this season, when they play to their potential they are a match for any side in Scotland. Crucially for Rangers, however, there are areas of the pitch that Rangers can and should look to exploit. Playing against a compact defence has caused Hibernian problems time and again this season and if Rangers can do the same tonight, they should be able to keep the likes of Kamberi relatively quiet. At the other end, Gerrard’s side must be aggressive on the ball and unafraid to charge at the defence directly. The numbers show that this is Hibernian’s greatest weakness and if Rangers can exploit it, they should be able to leave Easter Road with all three points.