DAVID BARNES
Scotland kick-off their World Cup campaign a week today, starting with a bang against the recently-installed top-ranked team on the planet.
There has been a suggestion of late that Ireland may have peaked too early in the World Cup cycle and have now entered a downward spiral, but back-to-back victories over reigning Grand Slam champions Wales in the last fortnight have re-affirmed that Joe Schmidt’s team will head to Japan as serious contenders.
Stalwarts such as Rob Kearney, Jonny Sexton and the soon-to-be retired Rory Best may be moving towards the exit door of their glorious international careers, but giants of the game such as these do not simply fade away without a fight.
Kearney was unshakeable at the back in Dublin last weekend, 37-year-old Best was indulged with a standing ovation when he left the field after 52 hard-fought minutes, and while the form of Sexton continues to be a concern the return of Robbie Henshaw brought solidity and control to the team’s midfield defence which Scotland will have to be at their best to circumnavigate.
The team in green will start next week’s match as firm favourites, but Scotland will believe it is the best possible time to face them, with the potential to catch Schmidt’s men on the hop in an alien environment. All the pressure is on Ireland, who travel to Japan with the weight of an expectant nation on their shoulders.
This is one of three pool matches which will define Scotland’s campaign, but defeat would not be a disaster as long as they can take positives out of the performance – and they don’t pick up any injuries along their spine of irreplaceable players, which includes WP Nel at tight-head, Hamish Watson at openside flanker, Greig Laidlaw at scrum-half, Finn Russell, pictured, and Stuart Hogg at full-back.
Next up is Samoa eight days later. With the Pacific Islanders having a rare opportunity to build towards this tournament as a group with a full training camp, this is by no means a walkover. Scotland struggled to kill the Samoans off when the sides met in Gregor Townsend’s first appearance as national team coach two years ago, before eventually holding on for a 44-38 victory. It was even more nerve jangling at the 2015 World Cup when Scotland just sneaked a 33-36 win.
In Scotland’s favour is the eight-day turnaround between match one and match two, which is two more days than Samoa get – a huge difference in international rugby. All things considered, Townsend’s team should have enough in the tank to get through this one.
Next up is Russia, who stumble into this tournament off the back of an 85-15 drubbing by Italy, a 35-22 loss at home to English Champion-ship side Jersey Reds and a 42-14 loss to Connacht. The one issue here is timing, as it is just four days before the second of those tournament-defining matches in the final outing of the pool stage. With only 31 players in each World Cup squad, Townsend will be looking for his shadow team to put in iron-man performances against Russia, so his main men are fresh for what happens next.
Playing Japan in Japan in a winner-takes-all clash, with a first quarter-final appearance for the host nation up for grabs, is huge. Tension levels will be through the roof at the International Stadium in Yokohoma City, and will be a major test of Scotland’s mental fortitude.
Japan set the 2015 World Cup alight with their sensational victory over South Africa and have targeted this match since the moment the draw was announced in November 2017. They are Pacific Nations champions and have long since established they are a cut above the other Tier Two nations.
Although their record against the Tier One nations is one win (against Italy in June 2018), one draw (against France in November 2017) and 11 defeats (including two against Scotland in June 2016), there is an unshakeable resolve about this team, and a determination to use this tournament to make an important point about where they should fit into the international fixture calendar.
“In my opinion, the only reason we would ever lose a match would be because we couldn’t execute what we aimed to do. I don’t imagine us losing because the opponent is stronger than us,” said their captain, Michael Leitch. “I hope to build the team so we can aim for the title. If we focus on preparation, we will be able to play consistently, and the results will follow.”
The third tournament defining match for Scotland is out of their hands. New Zealand versus South Africa on the day before Townsend’s team play Ireland is likely to decide who provides the quarter-final opposition if Scotland manage to make it that far.
Scotland will be desperate to avoid New Zealand, where as they will believe they would have a fighting chance against the Springboks.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules here