AFTER securing back-to-back wins in quick succession, Robbie Neilson's Dundee United have opened up a healthy three-point gap over Ayr United at the summit of the Scottish Championship.
The victories were timely, too: after a 1-0 defeat away to Alloa and a 4-0 humbling to Queen of the South, United's title bid looked to have stuttered in recent weeks as they failed to capitalise on Ayr's three-game losing streak. But the Tayside club held onto top spot, and have since created a little breathing space at the top.
Things are looking positive for Dundee United as they look to end their Premiership exile. In each of the last three seasons, the Tannadice club have had to settle for a spot in the play-offs and failed to overcome the opposition. This year, they hope to bring that sorry run to an end by finishing top of the tree and being automatically promoted back to the promised land of the top flight.
Financial imperative
It is a goal that Neilson and his players simply must meet. Last weekend, it was announced that Dundee United recorded a loss of £3.7 million - the highest in the club's history. Each season that the club have spent in the Championship has resulted in seven-figure losses for the club and this is only increasing as United's determination to return to the top flight reaches a fever pitch.
Most clubs would not be able to fund such extreme outlays in the Championship, but then Dundee United are not most clubs. As one of the best-supported clubs in the country, United benefit from higher-than-average matchday revenues - especially in the second tier - and the sales of Ryan Gauld, Andy Robertson, Gary Mackay-Steven, Stuart Armstrong, Nadir Ciftci and Jonny Russell between 2014 and 2016 brought in over £10 million in revenue.
The latest set of accounts revealed that Dundee United's total wage bill sits at around £4 million, which makes it one of the biggest in Scotland. This accounts for a staggering 133% of the club's total turnover, and does not include Lawrence Shankland's earnings, who is believed to be the highest-paid player at Tannadice.
Promotion, then, is becoming increasingly vital for the long-term financial security of Dundee United. But while Neilson's side top the table, things are not quite as rosy as they first appear on Tayside.
Unsustainable attack
United have been blistering up front this season and have made a habit of tearing through their opposition, seemingly at will. A lot of this is, of course, down to the spectacular goalscoring exploits of Lawrence Shankland, but the underlying data suggests this is inherently unsustainable.
Expected goals (xG) describe not only the quantity of chances created but also their quality, too. As a metric, xG tells us how well any given side's attack is performing. If a team's xG is lower than their goals scored, this is indicative if a side that is creating good chances but simply not taking them; given time, the amount of goals scored should increase. If the reverse is true we can deduce that the team is scoring from low-probability chances, and as such we can expect a downturn in the future.
Usually, a team's xG and their goals scored will be within three or four points of each other over the course of a season. So far this season, Dundee United's have scored 25 goals yet have a cumulative xG of just 15.12: a difference of around 10. To put that into context, the mean differential in the division between goals scored and xG sits at around 2.7.
This is a huge gap, and suggests that Dundee United are scoring far more often than they reasonably ought to. Having a striker like Shankland who is too good for the Championship clearly helps in this regard and we should expect United's xG to be larger than their goals scored, but the gap should not be as large as it currently is. United should have scored less and, given time, they will.
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Shankland's form will dip
Shankland alone accounts for the majority of the difference between Dundee United's goals scored and xG. The 24-year-old has 15 league goals already this season and an xG of 7.13.
This tells us that while Shankland has gotten off to a magnificent start in the City of Discovery, we should expect a drop-off in form. Yes, Shankland is one of the league's best players so we should expect to see him score more low-probability efforts than others, but his goals scored of more than twice his xG is simply unsustainable.
The data from last season reinforces this theory. When playing for Ayr in the Championship last season, Shankland's total xG for the league campaign sat at 20.6. He scored 24 goals in the end; an increase on his xG, but not a huge one. We should expect a similar output this season, although probably with increases to both the number of goals scored and his cumulative xG.
Dundee United supporters will need to brace themselves for the inevitable slump in their team's attack. Neilson's side have been invigorating going forward but the data suggests that this cannot - and will not - continue. Fortunately, United also boast one of the best defences in the league - only Queen of the South have conceded fewer goals - and it may be that this ultimately proves decisive in their bid for promotion.
Shankland and co have set the league alight this year but it won't continue in the long-term. Neilson will need to be prepared for the inevitable drop-off in goals that is on the horizon.
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