At the end of this month - the announcement is expected on October 29 - Scotland's arts companies, festivals, groups and galleries will learn which of them has been successful in securing regular funding from Creative Scotland.

It is not overstating the case to say that the future of Scotland's culture will be substantially shaped by the decisions that have been made by an organisation still re-establishing its credibility after a somewhat troubled, and ultimately badly discredited, first few years.

On the face of it, what its new chief executive, Janet Archer, appears to be bringing into being is straightforward and sensible. Infrastructure organisations will be assured support (investment, a grant, call it what you will) for three years, and for everyone else there will be an open opportunity to apply for money for specific projects throughout the year, without the previous regime of deadlines. Whether that clarity of vision survives the realpolitik of the different ways that every artform, never mind every artist, works remains to be seen, but Creative Scotland's immediate problem is that the opportunity to apply for secure three-year funding has, of course, been massively over-subscribed.

Those who were previously in receipt of "foundation" funding have naturally hoped that their credit will still be good at Waverley Gate, but every halfway established organisation has also seen the start of a new era as the opportunity to set themselves on that footing. They'd have been daft not to, and the lack of any intermediate position between a promise of regular money and grants for specific projects made application to join the top tier the only sensible option. Early in July as the deadline approached, the number of business plans generated in Scotland would have made the nation look like a petri dish of entrepreneurship, had these been profit-driven companies.

What will Creative Scotland do in the face of a demand on its resources that it cannot hope to meet? Although the Scottish Government has maintained and even enhanced funding for the arts (in happy distinction from Westminster), a decline in receipts from the National Lottery means that the arts quango's overall pot is much as it was. The dilemma it faces is the one that used to bedevil the dealings of the Scottish Arts Council - either favour the few and disappoint the many, or disappoint fewer by sharing out "equal misery for all", acknowledging aspiration but not being able to supply the funds to reward it.

As sure as eggs is eggs, the result will lie somewhere in the midst of that messy equation, and the people of Scotland, including the many who work in the culture sector, will probably accept it, regardless of the importance of Scotland's artists in galvanising the referendum debate and being a force in the production of the remarkable turnout. The people who brought folk flocking to the polls as never before deserve the support of that electorate in lobbying to make sure that they get the money they deserve. Whether Yes or No, everyone owes the artsfolk a bit of time on the soapbox.