SCOTLAND is facing its toughest year since the 2009 recession and could see growth slow faster than the rest of the UK, according to experts.

“We are seeing the Scottish economy slow, and for the overall Scottish economy as a whole, we’re saying that 2016 is going to be the toughest year since 2009,” said senior RBS economist Sebastian Burnside. “But within that, there are pockets of weakness and pockets of strength.”

Mr Burnside pointed out that the average household in Scotland was £300 richer as a result of the fall in the oil price since mid-2014.

“So if you’re a consumer-facing business outside the North East of Scotland, you’re benefitting from the fact that people have more cash in their pockets to spend,” he said. “If you’re an operator in the North East, it’s going to be tough. If a substantial number of your customers are in the oil and gas sector, it’s going to be really tough too. But we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that unemployment across Scotland is still falling and still generating job growth, and that’s because of this uneven-ness in the economy.”

Mr Burnside said the oil price fall in the second half of 2014 had taken about six months to hit GDP, so the largely continued falls in the second half of 2015 would continue impacting into this year.

Colin McLean, managing director of Edinburgh-based investment boutique SVM asset management, said Scotland was potentially more exposed to a slowdown through the oil services sector and large players such as Wood Group and Weir Group. Exporters to emerging markets such as China would also find conditions challenging.

“I would have to be concerned that Scotland would slip back into recession because we’ve got more exposure to oil and [export markets],” Mr McLean said. “Scotland is exposed to oil services because we’ve got these bigger oil services companies. And that translates into house prices being affected by the slowdown in Aberdeen. Companies exporting into emerging markets like drinks businesses would also be challenged a bit more.”

James McCann, UK and European economist at Standard Life Investments, said the group’s core view – based on backward-looking economic indicators – was that the UK and global economy remained fairly resilient and would not slip back into recession. However he acknowledged that the risk of recession had increased, based on ‘alarming’ forward-looking financial indicators including credit and equities markets.

“The developments in financial indicators mean for us mean the risks of a global recession have increased,” Mr McCann said. “The markets are definitely pricing in a much higher probability than they were just a few months ago. The other thing we have to monitor closely is that, the longer this financial stress is elevated, the greater the risk it in itself does damage to the real economy. That’s about factors like bank lending standards starting to tighten and firms becoming a bit more nervous about investing.”

Alastair Cumming, senior investment director at Investec in Glasgow, doubted that there would be another financial crisis, as banking regulation had been tightened so much since the last recession.

“The regulators have been all over the banks for five years or so, so banks are far better capitalised than they were before,” he said.