As the EU referendum countdown builds, what are the risks to our finances and where do they come from?

As consumers we are most concerned about whether life would be more expensive outside the EU.

The “personal financial impact” ranks as the highest consideration when deciding how to vote, according to a poll of more than 6000 UK adults by comparethemarket.com.

It ranked ahead of jobs, immigration, wider economic considerations, and UK sovereignty.

More then three out of four said campaign groups on both sides of the EU referendum debate had failed to spell out the impact on personal finances to individuals and households ahead of the vote on June 23.

Over 70 per cent said they believed groceries, fuel and energy would be affected if there was a vote for Brexit.  But 30 per cent believed they would get cheaper, with 40 per cent saying more expensive.

Simon McCulloch, director at comparethemarket.com, said: “Our research reveals just how much people could be swayed by either campaign group if they are able to communicate effectively how the outcome will benefit or harm household finances. In particular, the impact on the cost of holidays, energy and insurance seems to be a major consideration.”

A survey of 3000 crowdfunding and stock market investors by SyndicateRoom found just over half expecting their savings to be adversely affected by a Brexit, evenly spread across higher and lower earners.

But over half of men expect they would have better employment prospects if the UK left the EU.

From the research, SyndicateRoom estimates that over half the UK population believe that the UK is likely to remain, with 23per cent unsure. 

Older voters were more confident of a Brexit vote, with 34per cent of over-50s but only 20per cent of the under-30s expecting a leave vote.  But 52per cent of over-50s said they would reduce their expenditure in that event, suggesting a four per cent reduction in UK consumer spending. 

What about pensions?

Tom McPhail, head of retirement policy at Hargreaves Lansdown, says: “The Treasury paints a fairly apocalyptic picture of widespread reductions in retirement incomes. The key assumptions they make are of higher inflation and lower economic growth, both of these assumptions may be open to challenge by the Leave campaign. Change the underlying assumptions and you change the outcomes.”

Even with higher inflation, McPhail notes, the state pension would still increase in line with it, rather than run ahead of it.  “Pensioners would maintain their standard of living, they just wouldn’t be moving ahead of inflation and the rest of the population quite so quickly.”

He adds: “Some final salary pensions and many individual annuities do not have full inflation-proofing. Higher inflation could therefore undermine the real value of these incomes. However we also note that a rise in bond yields following a Leave vote could equally have a significantly beneficial impact on final salary scheme deficits.”

The run up to the Scottish independence vote in 2014 saw considerable uncertainty in both stock and currency markets. In a survey of fund managers by Hargreaves Lansdown,  83per cent suggested leaving the EU would be neutral for the UK stock market in the long-term, but a dampener on markets shorter-term.

Investors have been hedging their bets.    Mark Dampier, head of investment research at Hargreaves, said:  “A vote to remain should see domestic FTSE 250 stocks and financials do well, housebuilders too. Overseas holdings could suffer in sterling terms as the pound could strengthen. Those expecting a remain vote should also look to smaller caps. A vote to leave would see short-term market shocks. Investors expecting a leave vote could do worse than to avoid those sectors set to benefit from a remain vote.”

But he added: “Let’s not get too carried away. After any bounce, reality will dawn and markets will start to worry about things like the US election, Greek debt and everything else they have forgotten to worry about.”

Bill O’Neill, investment director at UBS, said:  “We are neutral on UK equities. We don’t see it having a huge impact on the market.”

O’Neill added: “There is still a substantial number of voters still in play, not just the undecided but those loosely committed on either side, turnout is very important. We think it will be closer to a general election turnout than a local election one.

 “I don’t hear any clamour for Brexit from our Scottish-based clients but nevertheless there is still a great degree of confusion, and I am surprised at how evenly-balanced the arguments seem to be around the economic debate.”

Alasdair Ronald, head of wealth manager Brewin Dolphin’s office in Glasgow, says: “If we do vote to come out there could be quite a big fall in the market and three to four years of uncertainty. There will be weakness in sterling and we could end up with a pick-up in inflation.”

As for the economy, the fund manager survey found the majority agreeing that Brexit would mean lower national output over one to two years, with the impact gradually unwinding. Most believed that “in the longer term, Brexit would have no impact on the economy”.