ORGANISATIONS representing the different sectors of the farming industry have been inundating farming journalists like myself with their wish-lists of how Government should protect them from the fallout of leaving the EU. In essence they want the same levels of support to continue, but without the associated red tape, and to continue to have the same access to EU markets for their produce.
Sadly, they had better wake up to the reality that, although the Scottish Government may be sympathetic to the fragile rural economy, the Westminster Government won't. Budgets like the NHS will be given preference over supporting agriculture - farmers had better get used to the idea that the days of big subsidy payouts are gone forever - and that, in my opinion, is no bad thing - especially if it leads to the abolition of slipper farming where landowners receive large subsidies for doing very little actual farming.
There is every chance that import quotas and tariffs could stem the flow of cheap, subsidised imports from the EU allowing British agriculture to flourish. We are more than capable of producing much more of our fruit and vegetables in the UK, and those that are needed "out-of-season" can easily be sourced from a host of non-EU countries.
Grain prices have already been given a much-needed price boost as a result of the weak pound that makes exports more competitive and imports less so.
Beef, lamb and pork have also benefited from the weak pound. Indeed the Irish Government has been having high level talks about the recent falls in the price of Irish beef, as they struggle to export the same volumes to the UK.
While lamb prices have risen recently, and New Zealand will find it more difficult to export to us, its future is a bit more of a problem as we export about 30 per cent to the EU. There may be scope to develop markets in the Far East, but I suspect we may have to accept some contraction in the national sheep flock in the future.
Perhaps the biggest winners could be dairy farmers. Too much cheese, butter, yoghurts and other dairy products have been flooding into the UK from the EU. The UK has a whopping £1.3bn dairy trade deficit and Brexit will allow us to displace a fair amount of that from an expanded UK dairy herd. Eliminating the UK trade deficit could be achieved by producing four billion extra litres of milk, through yield improvements and at least half-a-million more cows - all well within the capability of the UK dairy sector.
New Zealand removed farming subsidies overnight more than 30 years ago. After the initial shock and turbulence, most farmers survived and went on to develop more efficient systems and find new markets.
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