The UK's economic output for the second quarter was dramatically revised upwards from 0.2% to 0.3% yesterday morning – only for the Office of National Statistics to admit it had made an error – and revise it back down to 0.2% later in the day.
The ONS issued its upbeat message in the latest figures for output in the key construction sector, claiming that there had been impressive growth of 2.3% in the second quarter over the first quarter of 2011.
However, at 4.30pm an embarrassed ONS issued a completely new version of the statistics, explaining: “There was an arithmetical error in the final stages of preparation of the output in construction estimates published at 9.30 am today. The impact of the correction on the headline quarterly growth is to reduce the figure from the originally published 2.3% to 0.5%.”
Initially, the ONS had said the official estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter of 0.2%, published on July 26, would have to be revised up by 0.1%, though a full revision of GDP would not take place until August 26.
What had appeared as construction growth of 0.8% over the same period last year was corrected to a fall of 1.6%.
All new work was up by 2.4% on the first quarter but down by 0.6% on the second quarter of 2010. Repair and maintenance was down 3.2% on the quarter and 3.6% on the year.
New housing work in the private sector was up 5.2% on the first three months of this year and up 1.5% on last year.
Public sector housing saw a 2.8% rise on the previous quarter and a healthy 4.1% uplift on the depressed second quarter of 2010.
New infrastructure build was up 7.8% on the quarter and 8.8% on the previous year.
There was a sharp contraction however in new work in the rest of the public sector, excluding housing and infrastructure, with falls of 4.8% and 8.1% respectively on the quarter and the year.
The fall was equally marked in the rest of private construction, with the volume of new work down 4% on the previous quarter and 8.4% on the same period last year.
Public sector housing repair and maintenance, including improvement work, was down 6.1% on the quarter and down 9.7% relative to 2010 (the original version claimed neither figure was negative).
The private sector recorded falls of 2.5% and 5.4% respectively.
Michael Levack, chief executive of the Scottish Building Federation, commented: “These figures show the industry moving slowly in a positive direction but we must bear in mind that this is from a very low base. Overall, we’ve seen a modest improvement in publicly funded construction activity this quarter – but with the significant cuts now facing the public sector, that cannot be expected to continue.”
Mr Levack added: “The key indicator of the underlying health of the industry as a whole is the performance of the private construction sector.
“Here, the figures give some cause for cautious optimism, with some limited signs of improvement quarter-on- quarter and year-on-year.
“But private sector housebuilding output remains almost 40% below where it was at the height of the market, while private commercial construction output is 32% down on where it was at its peak.
“There can be no room for complacency and the industry remains braced for challenging trading conditions for at least the next 12 months.”
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